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A New Year’s Eve Arctic Blast & A Look Into A Possible January Storm

Good morning bloggers,

Screen Shot 2018-12-28 at 7.25.28 AMThe weather frustration has been increasing for many of us as we wait for our next chance of snow.  It has snowed on eleven different days so far this season, and yet only 0.5″ in December.  8.3″ has fallen so far, remember, so I recommend patience.  There were a few light snow shower bands on the Topeka radar this morning as you can see on this picture.  Some of these may make it into the KC area this morning. Let us know if you see any snowflakes.  This is just some wrap around moisture around yesterdays big storm that produced over an inch of rain in most areas near KC.  This disturbance will move by this morning with some sunshine returning later today.  The wind chill factors are in the single digits and teens, so bundle up.

After this system moves by we get to look ahead to New Year’s eve and a stronger cold front. An Arctic blast is forecast to arrive on New Year’s Eve, and this will most likely be a short lived blast of cold.  How cold will it get?  The lowest temperature so far this season has been 9 degrees. It may get down to that level or a bit lower, and without any snow on the ground there will be somewhat of a limit on how cold it will get with this Arctic air mass. Last year it dropped to 11 degrees below zero, and that was with very little snow. This happened on January 1st a year ago. This year’s pattern is being influenced by a developing El Niño. The influences have become more obvious with the recent warmer last two weeks or so.

New Years Arctic Air

The Arctic air will head south arriving in Kansas City Monday night as we ring in the new year.  And, by January 4, 2019 the Arctic air will retreat back up into Canada as you can see on the second map on the right.

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This map shows the 6 AM temperature on January 1, 2019 near 12 degrees. It will likely be 3 to 10 degrees colder than this map shows, so a low near 2 degrees to 9 degrees is more likely near KC with 25 to 30 degrees below zero closer to Canada.

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The Arctic front will likely be on our doorstep by early Monday afternoon. A rain storm will be ejecting north northeast across eastern Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, into Kentucky as well. KC is on the northwest edge of this system. If this lead storm ejects out a bit farther west, then some snow may develop near and north of KC.

What would be a great remedy for the snow enthusiasts that visit this blog?  A snow storm, right?  Take a look at this:

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This is one of the models projections in recent days for a potential storm system to develop.  This will likely happen between January 8th and 15th.  It has been popping into some of the models from time to time in recent days, and it fits the LRC for us to have a significant storm around this time frame.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments as we share in this weather experience. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation and have a great day.

It’s Raider week!  The Chiefs have a 90% chance of winning this weekend.  Let’s assume they do! Then, they would get a bye. They will be favored to win each game at Arrowhead with a 70% chance of winning the first playoff game, and a 60% chance of winning the second playoff game. Multiply 70% X 60% and you get a 42% chance of them making it into the Super Bowl.  Go Chiefs! Let’s take care of business this weekend first!

Gary

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