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A Mostly Dry Storm System Approaches

Good morning,

A storm system will move across the Kansas/Missouri state line this evening at the surface, with the upper level storm moving by overnight. This will bring us some strong south winds today ahead of the storm as the pressure gradient is pretty strong and the pressures fall. Here is a surface forecast for later this afternoon:

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There is  pretty decent chance of a few showers this evening and overnight as the upper level storm moves by, but this is really more of  wind producing storm for us, and when the wind shifts to the north tonight it should make some noise as it rattles the windows a bit.

After this goes by, another warm-up is likely Thursday before a pretty strong and dry cold front moves through Friday evening.  Have a terrific Tuesday!

Gary

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19 comments to A Mostly Dry Storm System Approaches

  • frigate

    Just some fyi, from my CoCOrahs station in Grain Valley, MO since Jan 1st. Total precip of 2.88 and 21.0 inches of snow. Don’t know what the normals are, but I’m assuming precip for the entire KC metro area/region is also below normal for the year. I know your saying some bigger storms appearing in the LRC for end of the month, first of April. Just hope its rain and NO more snow!!!

  • f00dl3

    Curious to see the progression of the drought monitor this spring.

  • Jerry

    Gary,

    Now that winter is essentially officially over, do you plan to do an evaluation of your winter forecast?

  • luvsno

    Gary……”There is pretty decent chance of a few showers this evening and overnight ”
    Where ?? North of I-70…South of I-70. ? can you be more specific ?

  • j-ox

    Isn’t it great that we ALL begin anew each Jan 1st as if starting from zero/scratch? That the 30″ deficit (Lawrence) from ’12 & ’13 doesn’t exist?
    Yeah, I know that not everyone is this far down. AT least we were green most of the year in ’13.
    But, am betting some areas are even (more) worse off – IE Northern MO?
    Who has estimated totals of deficit? Chime in.

    • Hume-Dude

      I know it is really bad in portions of NE Kansas , the storms never have their act together right there. Tong – e split in action if I’ve ever seen it. Keep the faith though, all it takes is one big flood event to make up for years of deficits. I’ve been telling my friends in Oskaloosa this for some time, but the big rains keep avoiding them. They will get a 1/2″ or an 1″ every so often to keep things green, but they can’t get any water to fill their ponds back up.
      Just worried this will be another repeat of the same old pattern , which begs another question. How come we don’t have an official term for the manner in which these storms come through dry in the central plains, only to deepen into strong systems as they pull away? Think about it, It happens so regularly I think it should have its own term, it is an actual phenomenon in my opinion. Take this system for instance, the low pressure is tracking very near us , so why isn’t there a comma head of precip. out in the warm sector like a classic storm usually would? Answer: Because there is something else in play here that I can’t quite put my finger on, ergo my “storm avoidance phenomenon”. Ok, that term is very good. Any suggestions?
      I realize the gulf hasn’t opened up to this storm so it has limited moisture to work with, but it is obvious this is a LONG term pattern, it has already been in effect for going on 4 years now. Maybe El Nino shifts the pattern, we will see.

      • NoBeachHere

        Hume-Dude,
        I have been wondering the same. I did do some reading on the AMO. I had to dig to find what I did. Anyway, there seems to be a correlation between SST’s and the atmospheric pressure’s and moisture that is moved toward the CONUS. Some of the, which I do not know, nor could I find out how in depth but is mentioned, AMO influence is also believed to be a factor on the NAO. Its a rabbit hole read and it made my head hurt.

        • Hume-Dude

          Remember 2012′s odd “dry hurricane” , and “storm of clouds” , features that came right through our region that 99% of the time would generate rain , which inexplicably were completely dry. I know Gary remembers them. That was an exceptionally dry year, but the trend has continued with these systems seemingly doing everything right to avoid producing precipitation here. One time, ten times possibly just an anomaly. Year after year, system after system, no longer just coincidence to me.
          Gary – when is the last time you uttered the once common phrase ” cut off low, weatherman’s woe”….its been a LONG TIME. We could really use a cut off system to produce several rounds of rain and widespread MCS type events…wishful thinking here

  • luvsno

    I can tell you that JoCo KS is abnormally dry….cracks in yard and around our foundation showing up once again.
    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=drought”

    • gardnerks79

      Yes it is. Gary are you still predicting the drought will end this spring? This was part of your original Winter forecast. Has anything changed?

  • luvsno

    Gary…or anybody….why does the NWS Kansas City have us in a Hazardous westher outlook category ??
    “http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KSZ105&warncounty=KSC091&firewxzone=KSZ105&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook#.UyhSosu9KK0″

  • FARMERMIKE

    is there a chance of a big winter storm at the end of this month

  • Hume-Dude

    Correction ” term, NOT very good” Lol…….HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS = RED FLAG WARNINGS!! Its dry….

    • mowermike

      Hume-Dude,

      I mentioned this yesterday, the red flag warnings are posted because of the gusty winds, the dormant vegetation, and the low relative humidity, not the dry ground as some areas aren’t dry right now. (at least on the top soil)

      Case and point: In SW MO, some counties that received 2-3 inches of moisture this past weekend are currently under a red flag warning.

  • Hockeynut69

    I know we have to take the long range models with a grain of salt especially the GFS, but man does it look active from about March31 – April 4th. This would fit right in with Gary’s long range forecast (LRC) if it comes to fruition. It looked like a good 2-5″ of rain for that period. Mostly rain and very little snow for KC. This would be a welcomed period of precip but bummer for the beginning of the baseball season.

  • luvsno

    US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri
    Did you know that today is the 89th anniversary of the “Tri-State Tornado”? This tornado impacted 3 states, starting in southeast Missouri and ending in southwest Indiana. The path length was roughly 219 miles. This tornado resulted in 695 deaths and over 2,000 injuries.

    For more information, NWS-Paducah has a page discussing this devastating tornado.

    “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=1925tor”

    For more broad scale reference of the event visit the wikipedia page:

    “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri-State_Tornado”

  • Baseball Mike

    Good afternoon Gary—I haven’t posted in some time but I have kept track of the moisture here as always—we will be in a three year deficit come July unless something changes, the drought continues. We did finish the season with slightly above snowfall.
    Michael/Berryton/Topeka

  • Drought Miser

    Ahhhh the sun feels good finally peeking out and warming us up …. i love the spring and I see some bulbs starting to pop on my jogs now…

  • Skylar

    I was looking at the visible satellite loop and noticed what looked like a lot of dust over the Texas panhandle areas. Sure enough, those areas are all under a dust storm warning. Here’s the image since the sun is about to set:

    “http://imgur.com/sAvmQDi”