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A Montana Storm Has Our Attention

Good evening bloggers,

There is a storm spinning in Montana, as you can see on this Water Vapor Satellite picture from 4:16 PM Tuesday.  The models are all handling this system in their own ways and the solutions vary widely.  This storm is forecast to move southeast across Kansas Thursday and then turn east.  How will it impact our area?

1

The latest NAM model has another new solution, but still has some rain sneaking into the south side of Kansas City. We have a tough forecast ahead of us and Kalee will begin with an update at 4:30 AM.

Gary

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18 comments to A Montana Storm Has Our Attention

  • robyn corzine

    You said on the news that this little storm fit your LRC theory perfectly. If it fits so perfectly then why do you need to wait on “new data”. Will you ever admit that the new data thing is nothing but a ratings statement and so is your theory which is not scientifically accepted? What did your app say the weather would be?

    • Dobber

      Will you ever admit that your ED?

      • Weatherwatcher

        Hey Dobber,

        The only thing Corzine can do is criticize. Every now and then, he/she/it does give lame compliments. Even my students have picked up on this…

    • Chuck

      You wonder why he doesn’t respond to you? There is a thing called professional courtesy, which you thumb your nose at. The only response you will ever get from him with the way you talk is for Gary to say please try and be respectful. If you disagree with him why don’t try and ask questions in a professional, respectful way. We know, you will come back and say if you qustion anything you are attacked. All you do is attack, attack attack. Pot calling the kettle black is what you are. Maybe, just maybe, if you asked politely he might eventually respond to you and you would actually learn something. I doubt it though, because you have built up so much ill will with anyone associated with this blog. It is ludicrous that you question so much about the weather and talk like you are an expert or weather is what you do for a living. Why don’t you try actually learning about it? Otherwise, leave it to the experts who actually know something about it.

      • luvsno

        Everyone is feeding that troll every time they respond to, or comment on, his childish posts. (And, yes, I am too by posting this ). I guess those of us who feed him are just as responsible for the demise of this blog.
        It is a Guarantee that he will come out from under the bridge, with insults and jabs, each time that Gary writes the blog.

        • Hume-Dude

          Don’t play with Robyn /ED , they have been naughty again with another mean spirited post. Lets just remember to ignore, ignore, and ignore some more.

  • Drought Miser

    Thanks for the update Gary,
    Someone nearby should pick up some beneficial rainfall, lots of available moisture to our Southwest!! Looking like our first of three heat waves cycles through next week start dragging those hoses folk’s it’s going to be a scorcher!!

  • Hume-Dude

    I am hoping that storm can give my area a little rain, we missed the rain on Sunday and Monday. Of course my dad decide to cut a really nice 20 acre clover field yesterday without watching the weather. “Hume hay cutting Index” is at play here now….

    • sedsinkc

      Latest (12z) NAM precip forecast, fwiw: “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140716+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model”

      It shows no measurable rain north of KC, from KC south to near KS/OK border only enough rain to wet the grass and knock the dust down for a day or so. Just one model, but my gut tells me KC is going to get little or nothing from this system.

    • sedsinkc

      At least southern and SW KS, Oklahoma, and North Texas should get healthy rainfall amounts. Dallas-Fort Worth has only had a little over 10 inches of rain this year to date, about 50% of average.

    • chris

      Hume-if you remember i won the naming rights to the hume hay cutting index and can only be used with written permission lol

  • yewtrees

    According to NWS, “It’s another record breaking morning! The new record low at the KC Intl Airport is now 55° (previous was 57° set in 1985), and St. Joseph tied their record low of 54° (originally set in 1970).”

  • Fat_Louie

    Face it, we’re still in the drought and probably will be the rest of the year…Ok “Abnormally Dry”…soon to be drought

  • mowermike

    Louie,

    Sure, we can easily slide back into a drought that has impacts. We could also slide into a very wet one too. It’s been wet the last 6 weeks. But, currently, this is the prettiest drought I have ever seen. Green grass, lush trees, ponds and lakes a average or above, river with plenty of water in it, temps in the 70’s, crops the best(look great right now)they have been in 4 years. So many things out there that just don’t scream drought. Now, if we go dry here in July and August, the grass turns brown, well, that’s normal for KC. KCI has had close to 3 inches of moisture this month, right about average for July to date.

    Drought’s usually produce very hot temps this time of year because of the soil being cooked,(easier to warm up)but, that’s just not the case currently.

    I know we have experienced drought conditions for most of the last 3 years or so, but, the impacts currently are just not there. It’s the timing of the moisture and this year the timing has been good to offset the deficits which aren’t all that crazy THIS year.

    My business is booming for July….that would not be the case if we were truly in a drought.

    Matter of fact, the weather this week is drying the soil much faster then if were 90 with a dew point of 70. High dew points keep moisture in place. So, even know the weather is fabulous, we’re actually losing soil moisture faster this week.

    • sedsinkc

      Mike this has been a cool year from the start for the central US, a carryover from a cool 2013. However, there are still areas of drought despite the cool temperatures in the Plains. Even now, with severe to extreme drought in North Texas, Dallas-Fort Worth has only had 2 100 degree days so far this year. They average 18 per year. The key is the position of the anticyclone in the summer and so far this summer it has been centered west of the Plains. Not unexpected, if you are a firm believer in the LRC. The favored positions of the longwave features from last winter has stayed much the same up to now. Question is, as the yearly LRC pattern starts to transition in August-September, what will happen? Last year we had a cool summer until late August into early September and our only 100 degree day of the summer officially occurred on September 8.

  • overlandpark4me

    I got down to 53 this morning. Felt grrreat.

    Did you know that 19 of the 31 record lows in July were set from 88 to present?

    How many high temps set during that period? Zero.

    • sedsinkc

      Incorrect. Record highs of 104 and 105, respectively, were set on July 6 and 7, 2012. Another record high of 105 was set on July 29, 2012.