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A Major Eastern Storm, The LRC, And Our Weekend Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

A major northeastern storm is developing today.  And, two more storm systems will have to be watched for our area as well as we move through the weekend into next week. Here is what we can expect in the next few days:

  • Expect cloud cover to stick around for most of today with light winds
  • The wind will increase to 30 mph or stronger from the south on Saturday
  • One band of showers and thunderstorms is likely going to move across late Saturday night into Sunday
  • A second storm, on Monday, will  bring a threat of snow to the area. This one has to be watched closely but right now it is targeting areas to the south

You can see the thick cloud cover, that is rather extensive, by looking at the dark color on this interesting satellite picture. The chance of sunshine is low until the very end of the day:

Cloud Cover

Light winds switching to the east and southeast today and tonight will likely keep these clouds around for a while.

I am just getting started….check back in after the new data comes out later this morning for more details and the finished blog entry….

This map, below, is one I posted on the December 21st blog entry to show how the storm moving into the northeast a few days before Christmas was related to Super-Storm Sandy.  This map shows Hurricane Sandy  looming off the New Jersey shore. Conditions became favorable for the hurricane to turn hard left and slam into the coast and it became part of a bigger storm system that we now call Super-Storm Sandy:

Hurricane-Sandy

This second map is the surface forecast valid tonight at 7 PM central time.  We have been forecasting this part of the weather pattern to return for 102 days now, since Sandy hit the Jersey shore. And, it is happening again. It is one of a series of four storm (go to the Weather 2020 Blog for more information on this part of the pattern) systems that affect this part of the country in each cycle every 50 to 55 days or so.  It isn’t just a coincidence that this storm system looks very similar to Sandy. But, this one is the first in the series, where as Sandy was part of the second storm in the series in the LRC 2012-2013 cycle:

1

 

While this storm produces blizzard conditions over parts of the northeast, two more storm systems are heading our way and we have to pay close attention to them.  The first one will bring Kansas City a chance of showers and thunderstorms and a lot of wind over the weekend. And, the second storm is falling into place for early next week. This second storm is similar to one that drove meteorologists in Oklahoma crazy trying to forecast snow right before Christmas.

I am still analyzing and writing………check back in later this morning.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog.  We will have in-depth weathercasts on 41 Action News through the weekend as this more active part of the pattern continues.

Gary

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60 comments to A Major Eastern Storm, The LRC, And Our Weekend Forecast

  • yewtrees

    “A second storm, on Monday, will bring a threat of snow to the area”. But, NWS says “Mostly sunny, with a high near 42″. A very interesting contrast!!

    • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

      Yea, I’m having trouble finding that threat on the GFS. Shows a H developing just to our west pushing the northern and southern low apart and away from KC area.

      How far “south” are we talking?

    • mowermike

      yewtrees,

      The storm is there, only problem, forecast to hit Oklahoma. Need a 150 mile jog north on future runs for KC to be in on it. Previous GFS runs,(maybe 3 days ago) did have it near the city, let’s see if it trends back that way. EURO has been consistent keeping it south of our area.

      • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

        Mike,

        The models show that snow chance is a pipe dream. Latest 12z GFS shows a firmly entrenched H pressure over Kansas blocking any birth travel of that small moisture in Oklahoma.

        We may get a few flurries as cold air will wander in and there is little moisture in those clouds.

        Unless Gary sees something the models have not depicted in the past week and continue to not depict, then his 2-4 chances of snow in February are turning into zero actual occurrences.

  • Skylar

    I have a friend who lives southwest of Boston and I just looked at their NWS text forecast, it shows 30-40″!

  • Theo

    Good call on the NE storm, Gary. Looks to be something to your theory.

    .34 inches at KCI? No way. Can’t be. Bet it rained at least twice that much 4 miles NW of Liberty.

    • Dobber

      I’m sure it did Todd!

    • mowermike

      Theo,

      It sure did along with most of the rest of the city(90%) that received .60 or better. Some approaching 1 inch in Johnson and Jackson counties(4-county region) KCI was just on the NW side again showing lower amounts.

    • kcpurpledog

      Stop the presses!!!! Theo agrees with Gary on something!!! Other weather people aroudn the country are discussing how this is lining up eerily similar to Sandy. Maybe there are patterns that repeat. Just a thought.

  • Kole Christian

    “http://wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png”

    Gary,

    How likely is this fantasy storm that’s about ten days out?

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013020812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=026″

    this is just INSANE, the latest NAM has 40+” of snow for areas around Boston.

  • mowermike

    WOW Kcchamps….snow pushers up there are about to make up a whole winter’s worth the money. Good for them.

  • Jerry

    I don’t get what you mean by “But, this one is the first in the series, where as Sandy was part of the second storm in the series in the LRC 2012-2013 cycle”

    • Jerry,

      I am trying to articulate this point. There are four storm systems in this two week stretch of the cycling pattern that will impact the northeast. Depending on various factors that I am still working on figuring out, sometimes one storm blows up in one cycle, and another of them blows up (intensifies) in the next cycle. All four systems are there and cycling through. The true Sandy storm was the end of October storm system, there was another one right before it and two more afterwards in each cycle. This first one is blowing up into a major impacting northeast storm tonight. The second one is actually the disturbance dropping south out of Canada this weekend that kicks out Sunday’s storm. That second system drops into the southwest and then becomes part of the second storm that impacts the northeast coast next week. There will be a third and fourth one as well. They all fall into the Long Term Long-Wave trough that helps these storm systems become organized. This is why they have features that look very similar to how Sandy came together at the very beginning of this year’s LRC. They are all related.

  • ASickBovine

    Heh.

    “http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/08/us/northeast-blizzard/index.html?hpt=hp_c1″

  • weather

    I have a idea. Since Mike has so much time on his hands why doesn’t he take himself and some trucks to the north east and bring back some of the snow for the snow lovers. Imagine how much people would love you.

  • weather

    Gary are you saying that hurricane Sandy was part of the pattern? Hurricane Sandy developed in the tropics did it not? I belive I’m correct in saying that hurricane Sandy has nothing to do with the pattern.

    • Hurricane Sandy became part of the pattern when it drifted out of the tropics and into the westerlies where we have mid-latitude synoptic scale storms. As the storm got off the New Jersey coast it became part of the overall pattern. If there was NO hurricane at all at the end of October, there likely would have been a strong surface storm forming there anyway. Does that make sense?

  • Emaw

    It’s not going to snow Monday, that was bone tossed to the snow lovers!

  • sedsinkc

    The blizzard in the Northeast will have heavy snow banding features associated with it. Depending on how the bands set up and pivot as the storm moves from south of Long Island to what’s called the 40/70 benchmark and then on east of Cape Cod, these bands could become almost stationary over a few spots for several hours. In those spots, where snowfall rates of at least 3 to 4 inches per hour can occur for several hours, 3 feet of snow is a real possibility, so 40″ in isolated spots isn’t such a crazy notion with this storm. General accumulations across southern and eastern New England will be more in the 16 to 24 inch range though. Right on the coast and out on Cape Cod totals may be lower due to rain knocking down the totals.

  • sedsinkc

    If interested, here is live streaming news coverage from Boston.
    “http://www1.whdh.com/video/7newslive/”

    • sedsinkc

      During commercial or other breaks in coverage, the site defaults to a live video stream showing the I-93 bridge over the Charles River (when it’s visible thru the snow)

  • tushchaser1

    I am looking forward to watching the blog denigrate into name-calling and other derisive comments now that certain “banned” people have made their way back to the blog.

    Let the games begin!

  • melafinatu

    Pretty cool Gary, being able to identify these patterns.

  • mattmaisch

    You want a nightmare scenario for those of us that are glued to the models when a storm comes? Try to figure out how much snow will fall this weekend in Boston. The 12Z GFS and NAM indicate a discrepancy of 30″ for the Boston Metro. Are you kidding me? This storm is already underway and the difference in snowfall predicted by the two main models is nearly 2 and a half feet! That makes it kind of tough to feel too confident in a forecast.

    That said, either way, they are going to get more snow over the next 48 hours than we often see in an entire winter. Love to be there for that one!

    • sedsinkc

      There is also the Euro and Canadian models to consider. I don’t have access to Euro model snowfall forecasts, but the pros do. And in the last few days, according to a graph I saw on TV last night, the Euro has done a better job than the GFS at predicting storm impacts. So perhaps the Euro is closer to the NAM in its snowfall solution?

  • rred95

    Parts of boston area getting 3 feet of snow, I would be happy with 3 inches in kc, thats not to much to ask for is it.

    • mattmaisch

      I hear you there. Just crazy in Boston with the NAM projecting 48″ and the GFS only 18″. Big big difference there! Either one would be the biggest storm I’ve ever seen though!

      • sedsinkc

        NAM has typically overdone snowfall. It has here this winter, on more than 1 occasion. Even if you take the NAM and GFS avg, that is 33 inches. At 33 inches it would still would be the biggest storm on record in Boston by about 5.5 inches.

  • sedsinkc

    I witnessed the Blizzard of ’78 firsthand in Connecticut. I can tell you one big difference between the two storms is the initial weather conditions. At the onset of the ’78 blizzard, temperatures were around 10 degrees in CT where I was, and remained in the teens for much of the event. With this storm, temps are near freezing at the start and only expected to drop into the 20s tonight. That will make a big difference on the road conditions between 1978 and today, at least until tonight when it gets colder and the full force of the blizzard hits.

  • The big problem on top of their snow, will be the 60+ mph winds. Yes, would love to see this one firsthand!

  • R-Dub

    Looks like the blog moderation is breaking down. C’mon guys, can’t you at least delete the spam from jersery hurricane?

  • sedsinkc

    Developing East Coast storm looks very impressive on regional radar. Surface low appears to be located offshore to the northeast of Norfolk, VA. “http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php”

  • Emaw

    Clearing out in north Olathe with bright sunshine, already up to the 35, we’re going to hit the low to mid 40s easy.

  • melafinatu

    SUN is out at KCI, much better here than Boston…well I guess that depends on how u look at it.

  • melafinatu

    Now mostly sunny at KCI…did all the clouds get sucked off to the east coast?

  • 15th is looking interesting, but if I was betting. It will a)go North or South, b) form East of here. lol

  • Farmgirl

    This is why I do not put much stock into the LRC: “Expect cloud cover to stick around for most of today with light winds”

    It has been sunny since noon in OP.

    I really don’t care about predictions 2-3 months ahead when 4 hours out can’t be predicted with certain accuracy.

  • MikeL

    Blizzard/WS warnings and watches in lots of places…but not around us…as usual.

  • Emaw

    I know, it’s sweet isn’t it!

    • rred95

      emaw, how did you cope with our 2010 and 2011 winters when we had almost double our average snowfall and blizzards?

  • Emaw

    I coped much better than you all when it doesn’t snow, I went to work and plowed it like I’ve done for the last 25 years!

  • OlatheMatt

    I wonder how ol George W is doing at his new job. Is KSHB going to get a female weatherperson? Maybe a nice blonde?

    Also, is it too early to tell if we are going to have an early spring yet?

  • Emaw

    I work for a local municipality , I’m not a private contractor.

  • sedsinkc

    The blizzard is really cranking across Long Island and the southeastern half of Connecticut. Thundersnow occurring on Long Island and along the CT coast in the past hour. Have never seen snowfall with such high reflectivity on radar. Some SNOW echoes have reflectivities above 50 dBZ on Doppler radar, which puts it into the red color on the display. Wind gusts already over 50 mph in Groton CT and out on Cape Cod and the islands.

  • Theo

    And certain bloggers would have you believe that all we need to fix the drought is some deeper snow cover.

    Only 250 inches of snow to go to bring us back to normal precip!

  • kellyinkc

    Just curious, when this storm that is hitting the NE now returns in about 50 days I am guessing it MIGHT be tornado producer for them?

  • mgsports

    The Chief at Fox4oc said tonight by the end of the month the cold air will be way back overseas so Spring will be here early meaning Severe Weather season.
    OK will have some bad Weather this Weekend in terms of Severe Weather.
    They can just promote the Storm Spotter they hired.

  • weather

    I saw on CNN today where a new guy is taking over the NWS. He said that the american models were going to be updated to a new computer system with a higher resolution. They are suppose to be closer to the Euro model which is more accurate then the American models. They will still be a step below the Euro but will be improved upon. Time will tell.

    Tired of hearing about the blizzard already.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Test? None of my posts are showing up on the blog…did this one make it?

  • Yea, I think an early spring is already in play. With the above temps we’ve had during Jan, it appears that birds may be migrating back in town already. The last two days I’ve seen an increase of bird poop on my car from the bare tree’s I park under at work.