Good morning bloggers,
There appears to be a rather significant change in the weather pattern showing up right now. I am not 100% convinced of this, but the trend on the computer models is strong enough where I am now confident that a stronger cold front will move through later in the week. So, I am confident in the stronger cold front, but not necessarily confident that the heat doesn’t return in ten days. Today will be near 100° and then we will be welcoming the cold front on Thursday. This cold front will likely be the strongest one of the summer. We may also see some rain by tomorrow ahead of the front. Take a look at one of the surface forecasts valid Thursday evening:
This forecast map shows, by far, the strongest cold front of the season, and the overnight data continues this trend. The high pressure area over Canada is forecast to expand and spread the cool air deep into the the southern plains states by Thursday night. We showed the forecast high temperature on Friday of 83° last night and this may be too high. The entire weather pattern is trending towards some change. The jet stream reached it’s weakest average strength during this past week and as the days get shorter the jet stream is beginning to get stronger. This has started the slow transition into next year’s weather pattern. Will this change be enough to start bringing us better chances of rain. It is beginning to look that way.
There will be a chance of thunderstorms beginning later tonight into Wednesday night ahead of the late week cold front. I am currently analyzing the data…..and will finish this blog entry later this morning after the new data comes out………….
Have a great Tuesday!
Gary
Gary, I am very happy about the cool down, as I am sure you are. How does this verify the LRC? Does this change your August forecast of “making a run at the all time record high”. I think we lose almost 1 hour of daylight between now and labor day.
Dobber and everyone else,
The LRC continues and the weather pattern is cycling according to it. The drought and heat wave summer has continued. Now, will it heat up big time again later this month, I am not sure. But, the LRC is verifying. Not all forecasts are accurate, just look at how poorly we did last week from day to day. We thought it would make a strong run at the all time high this summer, and it happened one state away. Oklahoma got it. We just missed out last week on the massive heat, thank goodness! But, it already has happened, just not so locally. When forecasting using the LRC weeks to months out, the accuracy is more regionalized than to an specific location. Now, we believe that to be quite valuable to plan for future events. The massive heat did happen already. Even Wichita, KS had three or four days of 110 degree heat. The days are getting shorter and fall will begin approaching. The chance of major heat diminishes as the next three weeks go by. Let’s hope it rains tomorrow.
Cheer-i-o Old Mate. Well said,but don,t give up Heat Wave #3.(or is it #4?) The 00z ECMWF 240hr. model has the heat building back in our area. For how long,if it fruitates,I don,t know… http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/ecmwf00.11.gif?t=1344343392 Have a good day…..
Kevin,
The European model has a major heat wave on one run, and then not on the next. The GFS changes every six hours. The LRC is consistent. It will likely heat up again, but the days are also shortening.
I agree the long range models have been(very)inconsistent this season.I,m just saying this month still has a long way to go…For all the nay-sayers,don,t look at these long range models,and try to make any decisions. They,re frustrating,at the least…P.S. I Very rarely put any stock(beyond)120hrs.out..
I probably should have said,96hrs.out:/
Kevin,
Absolutely! And, when the new weather pattern sets up this fall I can just about guarantee that the models will have a better track record and consistency. There is something about this pattern that the models have had no hope with, even within 48 hours. It has been frustrating to look at the models from run to run.
Could you elaborate on how the LRC is verifying please? The forecast models of 2 weeks ago predicted this round of heat exactly where it is occuring, not here.
Stans,
Again, some of the forecasts are verifying, for example I said in June that the summer would be very hot and drought stricken, but other forecasts have not been as accurate. But, the LRC is happening. In other words, the pattern continues to cycle and I can show how it continues to be related to this entire year. So, when I say the LRC is verifying I am not saying that my forecasts have been just awesome.
I’m sure confused as to how you consider all these events as “verification” of your theory.
Just one week ago, you posted your August outlook which included statements like:
“We have been forecasting the strongest heat wave of the summer for next month for weeks now and I don’t see how it doesn’t happen.”
“This forecast shows a huge anticyclone centered over Colorado on August 14th. Our first heat wave developed in late June and this would be right on schedule according to the LRC. If this forms and moves east out over the plains states, then we will, unfortunately, have to deal with potentially the strongest and hottest heat wave of the entire summer”
Those seem like pretty conclusive statements about what the LRC would dictate must be coming in August…but now you’re saying teh coldest cold front of the season instead? And you now claim both scenarios would be supported by the LRC?
This seems incredibly contradictory.
Jerry,
As I just responded to another blogger. I explain. Now, let’s move on. I had one of those two hours of sleep nights. And, I have a very long day ahead with the late night newscasts! And, Jerry, the latest ECMWF model, and one or two of yesterday’s GFS models have that huge anticyclone. I suggest not just coming in to blast a forecast until after it’s done. Let’s see what happens in the next ten days.
Gary
I’m not “just coming in to blast the forecast,” rather to see why it is you’re contradicting your own forecast before it has even arrived.
You made the strong statements last week about the strongest heat wave of the summer coming in mid-August — you stated you had “high confidence” in it because of the LRC…and then today you say things like “Now, will it heat up big time again later this month, I am not sure.”
It seems you’ve now covered your bases so whatever the outcome, you can point back and say “See, I said it’d be hot” or “See, I said that I wasn’t sure it’d get hot again and it didn’t!” and, under your explanation, either scenario would fit your theory.
Jerry,
I am sure you already know this. Contradicting a forecast is part of forecasting. We make a forecast on a Monday for what we expect to happen on Friday. On Tuesday we make a new forecast based on what we are now seeing and this updated forecast for Friday is made. On Wednesday, now just two days out from Friday we make another forecast. This update may be quite different than the one we made on Monday, “contradictory” to Monday’s forecast, but an update none the less. This happens all of the time. The Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday forecasts are always out there for Friday, but the one that really counts is the latest forecast. It BETTER get more accurate as we get closer. Some of the long range forecasts are quite accurate, and more likely the updates as we get closer are even more precise.
And, in about seven to ten days I am still expecting a big anticyclone to form. Maybe it won’t, but it is what I am expecting based on my past forecasts and the LRC.
Gary
Here’s what I know. The LRC does not exist, rather, it is a marketing tool. Your explanations defy honesty. Your reactions to those who call out your hypocrisy only speak to the dishonesty you are trying to get away with. Late
Here’s the biggest disconnect in my opinion. The LRC is much more of a regional or synoptic scale pattern. It exists and can be shown over and over in the UA charts. The problems and arguments stem from misapplying it to microscale level forecasts. They also most often arise on the edges of the pattern…in the transition from one pattern to another. Just as models have problems during transition seasons, so does the LRC. And as a side note, might I suggest a name change. Having Lezak tied into it will always result in claims of marketing and vanity and hurt the credibility.
stans I did some research a couple of weeks ago,because I was thinking the LRC was not accurate also…To my amassment, I was wrong…The 500mb. lows still exist,pretty much on a 45-46 day schedule…It,s the longitude of these storms/waves that threw everyone off…The splitting of the upper level jet stream 200-300mbs. over the N/E pacific during the winter into the very early spring was the culprit…The upper level jet has stay further North,more than usual through-out the whole year,e.i. the cut-off lows the Central Plains,and Southern Plains,and Mid-west experienced this last winter. Other words what I,m saying,,,A CUT-OFF LOW,IS A WEATHERMANS WOE..
Tush/Gabe
Great info and good points!!
How can you all believe this mularky? How can you read Gary’s responses and take him and/or this thing seriously? How can you just dismiss the obvious contradiction of the last week? Where are the comparison maps from multiple cycles? Where is the peer review attempt? Geezlouise.
Stans,
I’m not a firm believer either way. It could very well be all a bunch of Crud! I like to be positive and post good things. That doesn’t mean I’m right. He has had some success with long range forecast using his theory.
You certainly have a point in your opinion. It’s been a tough go for the LRC accuracy check of late.
One thing is for sure, your critique is in a professional way, much like Jerry’s. Some others’ have trouble doing that.
Now, the good stuff. How’s my Chiefs going to do this year? Early indications, 11-5. That’s if they stay healthy.
Are you referring to ME(mularky)? I actually went back into history to see if I was right,or wrong,after I criticized the LRC. I believe I was wrong to make judgements with-out seeing,learning, the facts… You should akso do the same…I used Unidata,s RAMADDA folder…Not only does it show the 500mb. plots,it also shows the IR satellite map,for any day for the last year…
LRC or not, for the past 4 days the GFS has been hinting that the reminants of Earnesto will stall out and eventually get sucked into the flow, possibly giving us some substantial rain in the 10-12 day timeframe.
Some of the other models kick it out into the pacific,and create another tropical entity.
Gary, you said you wanted the LRC to be a tool for those who depend on weather variables to be able to “plan” ahead of time.
If the LRC cannot be accurate locally to your viewing area, then what is the benefit for your viewing audience?
I canceled plans for a week long seminar next week due to your extreme heat forecast from a few weeks ago. We could not leave the farm in such extreme heat, but as it looks now we could have gone. Very frusting weather pattern we are in!
Why would you leave the farm when the Fire Danger is so high?? It seems the heat is your least amount of worries at this present time…
@Farmgirl, I would’nt cancel any plans based on a forecast a few days out let alone a few weeks out, be it Gary’s forecast or anyone elses for that matter. The best forecast I know of is the one where you get out of bed in the morning and look outside, very accurate.
Emaw,
Very funny, even though I know you are somewhat serious. So, for everyone else, let’s make a forecast. Will it be 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, or 107 today?
Gary
The 12z NAM is say 38 degrees Celsius at 4:00 inside the belt-way,so 101. That,s my final answer…
I’ll go with 100 downtown. Last triple digit reading of the summer.
I am going with 103!
105 today, it’s warming fast. Then heavy rain late tonight and tomorrow. (wishing at least)
Oh yeah, need email Gary. Lost it somehow.
gary.lezak@kshb.com
it’s 1:27 and i haven’t been outside in an hour. i’ll go with 102. it got hotter where i live yesterday than predicted and i’m betting that’s the case today too.
If you go to the NWS and just click on some locations in the Clay and Platte county areas, you will see some locations at 103 already. I think my 105 looks good right now. Sneaky heat today!!!
Only in the 70′s Friday. Go for it Gary!!
I’ll give Gary and team credit….they are the most accurate meteorologists in town. Sure, sometimes they miss but overall no one can predict as far out as they do.
I believe “Ernesto” is finally going to bring the break we need in this weather pattern. A turn north and we finally get some mouisture in the air for some of these waves to use to fire up some good old fashion thunderstorms.
Also, I will predict right now another very mild winter and another year of drought conditions. How many years of drought during the 30′s dust bowl drought? Can you believe a 75 year LRC pattern? Okay, maybe that is taking it too far. LOL.
Here an update from the NHC in Miami Florida, tropical storm ernesto is now a CAT 1 Hurricane ernesto with winds of 80 mph as it moves west northwest. Its about 430 miles east of cozemal mexico and may see landfall sometime tonight near belize.
I just wish this thing would hit the united states as we continue to be in an extreme drought, if it had hit the U.S. we would get some relief from the remains of the storm its self.
Brad
Watch the latest satellite imagery loop and look at western Kansas. It looks like a mini front is moving west and colliding with another air mass.
Well its Wednesday morning here and about 945 am. What a fun read. I like the way Gary trys to change the subject
. Does a pattern of some sort exist? Yes. Can you make accurate long range forecast? NO. Gary you said the second week of August we would make a run at all time high and heat wave. You can’t say it happened one state away so you were close 
. Enjoy the “heat wave”KC lol. Gary I would stop trying to “sell” the lrc as a forecasting tool because no ones buying. Later KC.
So what do you do for a living mu??? I wonder do you get some kind of sick & demented pleasure from your part-time armchair warrior career? If so troll elsewhere.
woops, sorry for the attack. I just meant to say gary gets it the LRC WAS NOT TOO ACCURATE this time around(i believe during the winter of 10-11 it was spot on). He’s still the best in the KC metro. Besides haven’t u ever changed the subject when you’re cornered?
I,m leaving this subject alone today…..Tomorrow, I,ll show you another way the LRC is there…