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A Look Through Thanksgiving Week

Good morning bloggers,

Thanksgiving week begins calm, and it likely won’t end calm across the United States. The question is where will a potentially strong storm system form by the end of this holiday weekend?  Let’s begin this morning with what I sketched out through the frost on my windshield this morning:  Go Chiefs!

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The weather in Los Angeles is calm and there may be no wind at all for the game at the Coliseum in Los Angeles tonight with temperatures in the 60s as the sun sets for Monday Night Football. I am predicting a Chiefs win 37-24.  Yes, I am thinking the Chiefs defense will hold the Rams to 24 points!  Onto the weather.  Take a look at this:

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The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is dipping negative and forecast to dip deeper into negative territory in the next seven days.  The North Atlantic Oscillation is also dipping negative.  This indicates the potential for blocking to develop at high latitudes, or up over Greenland, northern Canada, or northern Alaska.

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The upper high is forming now, and by Tuesday it will be strong and north of Greenland.  It is really far to the north and this is why the influences seem subtle at the moment. It is likely going to redevelop farther south over northeastern Canada within the next week and it will have an increasing impact on the weather pattern over the United States. What will these impacts be, however?  This is something I am still sorting out, we are still sorting out and we will discuss in future blogs.

The first lead storm on Friday:

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This first lead system is just forecast to create a band of rain over eastern Kansas and western Missouri, and then our attention is on the second system that is due in this weekend:

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As the blocking develops, this second system is more likely to get caught up in the developing block.  The European Model has been showing the development of a major winter storm, while other models are much more progressive. Let’s see what happens on the models today.

Have a great day, and go Chiefs!

Gary

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