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A Look Into What Created The Blizzard Conditions In November

Good morning bloggers,

2018 Stats

As you can see above, Kansas City’s highest temperature in 2018 was 100°, the first 100° day in almost five years.  The lowest temperature was 11° below zero, and that happened on New Year’s Day.  Almost half of the yearly snowfall fell on November 25th and that part of the pattern is about to cycle back through!

Happy New Year!  We hope everyone had a great holiday.  A storm will be tracking due south of Kansas City and too far away to have much of an impact our area.  So, today we will discuss the conditions that helped create the first 3″ snowstorm in almost five full years. This happened back in November, and if you remember, the pattern had a huge warm up ahead of this storm system.  These maps below show the pattern just before, during, and just after Kansas City had 5.8″ of snow at KCI Airport and near blizzard conditions.  The part of the cycling pattern that produced these conditions will cycle back through within two weeks.  Will the exact same thing happen? The answer is likely not, and yet not out of the question, however.  There are many possibilities ranging from just a cold front and dry, to an even larger storm system.  I will lean in the direction of something between these two extremes.  Take a look at the last cycle:

LRC Cycle 1_2 2018

The top left maps shows a ridge, that helped create the 62 degree day on that Saturday after Thanksgiving, and the series of waves coming into the west coast.   The waves organized into a strong jet streak over Oregon, and this allowed the storm to dig into southwest Kansas before lifting out into the Ohio River Valley the next day.  Will a similar situation happen, or will it dig more or less? Will it have more energy, and will there be any blocking, as there was no blocking when this first storm happened?  There are other questions as well, and for now we just know one thing for certain. This part of the pattern is going to cycle back through, and this actually was the beginning of around a two week stretch with more storm systems.  This means there will be some exciting days ahead of us as we progress through winter.  Some of the models have been indicating this part of the pattern is right on schedule for around the 12th weekend.  The Kansas City Chiefs host a playoff game on January 12th. There will be a big warm up just ahead of the storm, and then we will see how the pattern lines up in this LRC cycle.

Today’s Weather:

A storm is tracking out of the southwestern United States and heading across north Texas today.   Most of the advisories are begin affected by this storm, including cold on the back side as Las Vegas has a Hard Freeze Warning in effect.  In Kansas City, there may again be few snow flurries or some light freezing drizzle this morning, and then the weather will improve Thursday and through the weekend before we begin anticipating a stormier part of the pattern in around ten days.

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 5.25.10 AM

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

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