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A Look Into the Weekend Storm: Watch That Northern Edge Closely

Good morning bloggers,

We will be adding to the 26.3″ snowfall total this weekend. the first snow fell on October 14th, the earliest snowfall accumulation in Kansas City history.  Kansas City has not reached 65 degrees since it was 65° on October 30th. The last 70 degree day was October 29th.  This is the first time in Kansas City’s history that it did not reach 65° from November through February.  KC averages nine 65°+ days per winter season.

The warmest temperatures since that last 65° on October 30, 2018:

  • February 3:  64°
  • November 22:  63°
  • January 7:  61°
  • December 18:  58°

This is really incredible. Another take away from this is that warmest December day of only 58°.  The perception that it was so warm in December is quite obviously not reality. It was 3 degrees above average for the month, because the Arctic air did not finally blast down until January.  This is a long and cold winter we are experiencing, and some of the coldest air is blasting south this weekend. Speaking of this weekend, there is a disturbance heading our way:

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This storm coming into California can be seen on this mornings satellite pictures:

Screen Shot 2019-02-28 at 7.33.39 AM

How this system holds together will likely answer some questions about where the heaviest snow will track on Saturday night and Sunday.  The models are barely holding this system together in response to the northern branch of the jet stream that is strengthening. This will create the concern for where the northern edge of the snow will end up tracking:

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The 552 is being modeled as the southern edge of the northern branch of the jet stream, which is on the base of a deep vortex north of Minnesota.  And, the 558 line is the northern edge of the southern branch of the jet stream. I know, it sounds pretty complex right? Where the confluence between the two branches will likely be where the northern edge of our potential snow will be located.

  • If the system, racing our way from the Pacific Ocean and tracking into Utah and Arizona Saturday night, is just a bit stronger, then the northern edge of the snow will end up a bit farther north. This would lead to higher snowfall amounts in KC
  • If the system is any weaker and farther south, then that northern edge of snow could get rather close, too close for comfort
  • These are the things to monitor as we analyze the data

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This system is still over two days away, so many more solutions are ahead of us.  Here is the GFS model that has that northern edge just near the Iowa/Missouri border.

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Kansas City’s Snowfall Amount Probabilities: These will be updated each day as we get closer

  • Chance of no snow:  0%
  • Chance of 1″ of snow:  100%
  • Chance of 2″ of snow:  80%
  • Chance of 3″ of snow:  60%
  • Chance of 4″ of snow:  40%
  • Chance of 5″ of snow:  20%
  • Chance of more than 5″ of snow:  10%

And, yes, around nine days from now there will be another storm to track, and it was stronger than this one in the last cycle.  So, this winter ride is far from over.  Have a great Thursday. Go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. This storm is right on schedule.

Gary

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