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A Look Into The End Of The Week Set-Up

Good morning bloggers,

There is a chance of snow on Friday night into Saturday morning.  The part of the LRC, the cycling pattern that created the conditions favorable for Kansas City’s first 3″ snow accumulation from one storm in almost five years, is cycling back through later this week into this weekend.  I will say this again, it is the storm that ended an almost five year stretch where every single snowstorm  produced under 3″ until November 25th.  That’s when 5.8″ of snow fall with near blizzard conditions as temperatures dropped from the low 60s on the 24th to the 20s the next afternoon.  This part of the pattern is directly related that storm. In this next LRC cycle, it will not be exactly the same.  The LRC model predicted this system to be near Kansas and Missouri six to seven weeks ago and it is verifying.  Now, will we have our second 3″ storm of the season after five years with none, or will this system just miss our area?  It is something we are monitoring closely.

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Most of the models have this surface pattern developing Friday into Saturday morning. An inverted trough is forecast to stretch north out of an eastern Texas surface low. The snowfall pattern is most concentrated over central and eastern Missouri on the latest models. Some of them have KC with barely a dusting, while others have nearly 10″ of snow.  This model shows a snowy pattern for early Saturday, and then it ends by the time the Chiefs take the field on Saturday afternoon on NBC as they host the Colts.

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In this scenario, the precipitation would taper off to being very light during the game or ending.   If the timing is a bit slower, then it may be snowing during the game. If it is a bit faster, it may be drizzling, flurries, or dry during the game.  I am just not confident on the timing or amounts at this time.

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This snowfall forecast shows widespread 2 to 3 inch amounts near KC. This is the GFS model. The FV3-GFS model shows much higher amounts, while the European model has no accumulation in KC with it just east of the city.

It is still a bit too early to analyze the details. By tomorrow we should be able to narrow in on the trends.  Have a great day, and thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go over to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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