A Look Into The 4th of July Holiday Weekend Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

Whew, what a few days across the plains states.  A wet summer pattern has set up and it isn’t ending anytime real soon. There is another storm system that is cycling through that fits our Cycling Pattern Hypothesis well.  This next system is due in early next week and we will take a look at it today. Let’s begin with a look at the two day storm rainfall totals.

Rainfall Amounts from the past two days:

  • Overland Park, KS:  3.13″
  • KCI Airport:  3.05″

Sunny The Weather Dog poses this morning underneath the huge anvil shield from the latest large MCS (Mesoscale Convective System):


Screen Shot 2017-06-30 at 7.12.32 AM

This system was weakening with a line of thunderstorms still active over the northwestern corner of Arkansas that you can see with the stronger enhancement in that area.

The Cycling Weather Pattern:


The upper level flow today shows a strong summer time trough (the black dashed line) swinging over the plains and Rocky Mountains. This part of the cycling pattern has created low heights and the only anticyclones are over the oceans. The anticyclone is the opposite of a cyclone. A cyclone is a low pressure or low height system and an anticyclone is a high pressure or high height system. If it is at the surface we can all it a high pressure area, but aloft on the map above we call it a high height system because the pressure is actually the same on every line you see on this map above. This is the 500 mb map from this morning and the lines actually represent the level where the pressure is 500 mb. For example look at the farthest south line over Oklahoma with the little wiggle in it which is a reflection of the MCS. This line is the 588 decameter line. The pressure is 500 mb 5,880 meters above the ground in that location.  Look at North Dakota now. That line is the 570 decameter line, or the pressure is also 500 mb but at a lower height, 5,700 meters above the ground.  The anticyclones are north of Hawaii, over the Atlantic Ocean, and over the Arctic Ocean. At this time of the year you would expect these to be building over land areas and not the oceans. The cycling pattern according to my hypothesis is dominating this part of the pattern to force this set up.

Now, look at what is forecast to happen next:


On this map above you can see an anticyclone, or high height area, building over the 4-Corners states. A little upper low, or cyclone aloft, is forecast to develop right over Kansas City by next Wednesday. This is a very weak system, but at this time of the year these very weak systems can be very, very wet.

Here is one rainfall forecast from the European Model for the 24 hours ending at 7 PM July 4th:

Screen Shot 2017-06-30 at 7.52.23 AM

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the Cycling Weather Pattern. Let us know if you have any questions. We are opening comments today on this blog. And, you can also discuss the cycling pattern over on the Weather 2020 blog as well. Have a great day.



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12 comments to A Look Into The 4th of July Holiday Weekend Forecast

  • Heat Miser

    Gary, have you considered getting a second weather dog to join Sunny? I know in the past you have had two weather dogs at once for much of the time.

  • Comments are now open! Let’s celebrate as it has been a couple of years. Welcome back to the blog everyone!

  • Dobber

    Been awhile for sure

  • thomas

    Glad to be back.

  • Metro

    Sure is nice to have the comments back open. Thanks for all your hard work Gary.
    Whats the rain chances today looking like?


    • There is a chance for a few minutes later today as that disturbance swings across. But, not a great chance and literally for just a few minutes.

  • Rockdoc

    Good morning Gary. Wow, you’re up and running on the KSHB blog. I guess I’ll have to check in on both blogs. It has been some time since I used WordPress login, I forgot my password….lol.

  • Weatherman Kumke

    Oh look, we can all comment again.

    Was a pretty good MCS last night. Got roughly 2.85 inches of rain at 119th and Blackbob. Looks like another wet day in store for the 4th. Hopefully I’ll still be able to grill food without the rainwater damping the steaks and burgers.

  • sierravista

    So nice to have comments open again! Thanks Gary.

  • stl78

    Nice..there are alot of old bloggers who’s comments I’ve missed since they closed this a couple yrs back