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A look ahead

Good morning bloggers,

In the past week we have gone from snow to thunderstorms, with some nice weather in between.  Ronn Hamblin sent in this picture of the Morel mushrooms popping up near Truman Lake last Saturday morning:

morells

What lies ahead?  There is a weak front that will be moving across our local area this evening. We may destabilize enough to have a few thunderstorms form near this front, otherwise the chance of rain will be going down for a while.

season_drought
The drought ended in Kansas City a couple of weeks ago and we have had enough rain/snow to help on our water bills so far this spring.  Next week may be that first week this year where we may need to water the lawn.  Let’s see how that sets up with a big warming trend.

The map to the left was issued by the Climate Prediction Center and it shows the continued ending of the drought over our area.

Have a great Thursday! We will check back in and update the blog if thunderstorms begin forming near the front.

Gary

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36 comments to A look ahead

  • Skylar

    Latest drought monitor has KC proper no longer under any dry/drought classification for the first time since last spring.

    “http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?KS,HP”

    “http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?MO,MW”

    • Theo

      What’s KC proper? Johnson County and Wyandotte County Kansas as well as Platte County Missouri are still in drought.

  • Jerry

    While we’re looking ahead, here’s the weather2020.com forecast for next week:

    Forecast Update March 15th: Severe thunderstorms are Likely between the 12th and 16th of May. An outbreak of severe weather will happen on two consecutive days as a storm moves out of the Rockies and into the plains. A fairly strong May cold front will make it’s way through this entire region with cooler weather likely with dry weather on the weekend of May 18th in northern areas around Kanas City to Omaha. Farther south the front may stall with daily strong thunderstorms that may be severe closer to the Oklahoma border. The weather looks nice on this weekend for Kansas City, Omaha, Des Moines, Wichita, and across Missouri to St. Louis.

  • luvsno

    Gary, I came on here to comment basically the same thing, but I am referring to the Severe Weather Calendar graphics/pictures that you posted for May and June..I have saved those to my drive). The one for May shows red from May 12-16th and says Severe weather outbreak expected.

    Now you are saying we may need to water the lawn?
    I suppose severe weather does not necessarily equate to a lot of rain, but just wondering if you are still thinking KC may still have that outbreak next week….or are those Calendars meant for the KSHB viewing area, which encompasses a large area.

  • smiley10

    Yawn… all this jumping on Gary the minute a forecast changes is really old. You try predicting the future and see how good you do.

    • luvsno

      Smiley10….who is jumping on Gary ???? I was not. I only asked if he is still thinking that there will be a severe weather outbreak. We are not allowed to ask questions without being accused of jumping on Gary ??

      And no, I would not be able to predict the future (weather or anything else). Gary is the one who put out those calendars. He is the one putting his predictions out there. He is the one being paid for trying to predict. He did not need to put those calendars out, but he did. Now I just wanted to know if he agrees with what he put out, or if his thinking had changed on this up-coming week.

    • kcpurpledog

      Some don’t understand it’s called a FORECAST. The closer to the event the more accurate anyone is. Get ready for the rebuttal from the same few (likely some are the same person).

      • R-Dub

        So, because it’s a FORECAST, that means….what? You can’t possibly criticize it if it’s wrong, but it can be touted if it’s right?

        I don’t understand why you are so hostile to anyone ever questioning Gary. This is how science works. Gary has made extraordinary claims, and all people are asking for is the extraordinary evidence to back them up. Why do you have to act like people are committing some major offense by doing this?

        • kcpurpledog

          It’s pefectly ok to critique things and ask questions. I’m not hostile to people questioning Gary. Sometimes the regulars that do this actually do ask legitimate fact finding questions. However, it’s easy to get “hostile” when people try to cover up their sarcastic, mean spirited, I got you on this one, I told you so “questions” to him. It is obvious to me that there are some that care only about pointing out items that even give the appearance of things that they themselves may have mis-construed, mis-interpreted, etc. Pefectly ok to get clarification on that stuff and ask some probing things, but the regulars who do this hardly ever do this in a constructive, professional way. It’s snarky, nasty comments one after the other. No, nothing here today is really like that at all, but, just wait, it will happen today. I think Gary has always stated that it’s a work in progress. I think some live to relish the day they can prove him wrong. I really don’t care that much. I do think he’s on to something. I just like to point out the boorish behavior that a bunch on here have nearly every day. The crowd I’m talking about is almost suredly not a professional weather person, but they act like they know more than the professionals, and every other person on here. It’s a very narcissistic view of the world, which doesn’t surprise me one bit. So there. That’s my two cents on things. Don’t like it? I don’t really care.

          • mukustink

            Thanks Mike for your 2 cents. That’s what your comment is worth. Sorry people ask tough questions about your man. Have a great weekend!

            • kcpurpledog

              Is there any way I can prove to you I am not Mike? I’m not. Don’t know him, never met him. If you really look he and I don’t write anything close the same things. He’s not my man either. I and everyone else in this blog can easily tell when your group is legitmately asking questions of Gary, critiquing approprately, etc. vs the nasty smartass comments that have no intention, but to stir up trouble as trolls like you do. Your name says it all too. You stink.

          • Theo

            Tough luck, purple hog, you’ve been outed. Time to come out of the closet and admit you’re a minion. Your other hero Mike already left for the other blog. You should too.

            • kcpurpledog

              The 0 (stands for the zero. What a great name for you. No, I can still blog. Everyone wants you and MU/KU, Jerry and a couple of others to go away permanently. The blogs would be so much better. We would still question Gary, but in a professional way. Why don’t you just blow away? I issued a challenge to Rock….show yourself. You won’t do it. Hide behind your little words.

      • Rock Hardon

        kcpurpledog,

        I will ask once again. Have you ever thought of growing one instead of acting like one?

        • kcpurpledog

          You are so darn mature. You’re a dweeb. Probably a wimp too. Nice name. It says it all.

          • Rock Hardon

            Dweeb?

            I hate to break this to you…the 80’s are gone..just like most of your teeth and all of your hair…anyway..get back in your waterbed….take off the Members Only jacket…strip off the spandex leggings….throw in your favorite New Kids On The Block cassette..give your Farah Fawcett poster a quick kiss and harken back to the days when you used to be relevant..if only at the local Dungeons and Dragon festivals…

            • kcpurpledog

              Stupid comment. Makes no sense. You are truly an idiot. Why don’t you put your money where your mouth is and show yourself. I’m game. I know I won’t hear from you.

              • mukustink

                purplehog is most definatly Mike! Challenging bloggers to fights and such. Mike I’m still waiting for you to tell me my IP address. Remember you said you knew that information because you paid money to find out. LOL. You said it look back in your blog files.

  • WxCursed

    I’m not Gary, but this is from the NWS:

    “Wednesday the upper level ridge will be shunted to the southeast as
    an upper level trough digs into the upper Midwest. This will send a
    weak cold front into the area which will provide the next chance of
    showers and thunderstorms. There is some question as to how much
    moisture this system will have as the ec has a surface high pressure
    over the Gulf Coast states keeping the Gulf closed. The GFS has high
    pressure over the eastern Gulf with the western Gulf open and
    moisture being transported into the area. Have maintained chance
    pops inherited by the initialization to account for the GFS solution.”

    That would fit the 12th-16th time frame. Remember, we’re entering our climatological peak for severe weather in KC, so severe weather is not out of the question, but we still have to have the right setup for it to actually happen.

  • j-ox

    Perhaps this is an isolated rain total, but both my neighbor and I poured out ~1.6″ from last night’s storms here in NW Lawrence.
    Diggin’ it!!

    • And over here on the SW side of the city my number was only .63″, however considering how soggy everything is this morning that for us was quite adequate.

      Now we just need some serious amounts of sunshine to dry things down enough for the next mowing cycle to commence.

      • j-ox

        I most certainly thought it was a fluke until I confirmed it with next door’s gauge(s)…he has 3! Looking to put the mow-down this mid-afternoon…should be dry enough by then, lest we get some more rain.

        • j-ox

          Got another quick .25″ this afternoon in a brief popcorn storm just as I finished mowing my lawn. Further corroborated with my neighbor’s neighbor (and his 2 rain-gauges) that we did receive ~1.6″ overnight last night. Grass has nothing better to do now but grow!

          • You seem to be in the sweet spot…so to speak.

            My round of afternoon activity only amounted to .08″, however it arrived just as I was getting serious about cranking up the Toro, which is now the first thing on tomorrow’s list.

  • whitelightning

    Gary, Whats memorial day weekend looking like? good for camping?

    • mukustink

      I asked Gary about that the other day and he said that there is going to be storms passing by the plains that week. He didn’t specify when during the week. His 2020 site says storms and severe storms. You can go to “weather2020.com” and put in your dates. I’m not worried about camping hoping for pool weather.

  • PILOT MISER

    Rain shower passing thru Platte City. Not much but big drops and windy.

  • lsmowatcher

    Looks like some possible rain clouds in Lees Summit. Are we expecting some pop-up showers? Would love a daytime thunderstorm.

  • f00dl3

    Looks like thunderstorms popping up all over but not much instability to work with despite it being in the mid 70s.

  • PILOT MISER

    Seems a shortline if cells moving thru south part of KC. Some showing possible hail.

  • Emaw

    Picture = Snow blog.

  • smiley10

    There were some beautiful storm clouds in the east reflecting the sun as it set. It had a nice anvil on it for a while.

  • Joseph Tay

    I’ve noticed lately the blog entries by Gary have been short and unenthusiastic…..is this because he likes Snow and doesn’t really care about other weather or maybe “other Things” going on?

  • BigSteve

    All this blogging about the blog is too meta. No one wants to read that stuff. Comments about weather are appreciated.

  • MIZZOU

    Oh, you didn’t know? This is now a place for so called weather enthusiast’s to come and talk shit on gary because he didn’t predict the future right. We all know that Jerrrrrrrrrrrry, Mukustink, Theo, and this new guy Rock Hardon know how to forecast better than gary, duhhh. When those guys put out a forecast (I mean kids) I would definitely take theirs over garys anyday. Because of them; we can’t get a good weather discussion going. when something is not going how planned for them, they resort to this blog. Go take it out on a punching bag, or go work out and blow some steam (kids) or are you just that lazy or fat haha. get a life. you don’t forecast weather for a reason, and can’t say shit when a forecast is wrong because you obviously don’t know the first thing in making a forecast. With that said.The people i named above, try something else…yeah? Maybe try some different blogs, like yoga work outs or something, and relax if the forecast or weather doesn’t go as planned. Please?