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A Great Day Today, Then Big Changes!

Good morning bloggers,

The weather pattern is going to be rather active this week with the potential for a severe weather outbreak by the weekend. Remember, as we showcased a few days ago, and forecasted 60 days ago, this part of the pattern has produced a major severe weather outbreak in the previous cycle. It most likely will target the same areas as that one, but we have to monitor it closely.

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The models are all over the place on possible solutions. This forecast map above shows the 114 hour GFS 500 mb forecast valid Friday night, April 28th. A deep upper low and storm system is forecast to develop over the four corner states. This will deepen, move slowly, and impact the plains and western states for a few days.

There is a lead storm and front that will be moving across the plains Tuesday into the upper midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Here is the surface map valid at 7 PM Tuesday.

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This forecast for Tuesday is rather complex, and this complexity will continue from day to day the rest of the week as that bigger trough develops. The first cold front coming our way Tuesday night looks rather strong. Some snow will be likely over the mountains and western plains. Thunderstorms will likely form Tuesday evening near and behind that strong front.

day2otlk_0600It is a rather difficult set up to figure out exactly where the severe weather risk will be on Tuesday evening. The front will be on the move and the thunderstorms that form will likely initially be fairly strong. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this small slight risk area centered near Joplin, MO Tuesday evening.

The risks will be much more significant by Friday or Saturday. Cold air will be a factor later in the week. We will have to be monitoring the day to day surface developments. The big target is right where the severe weather occurred on February 28th. Here is what happened that day:

This is the map we posted a few days ago, and it seems to be right on target for around Friday or Saturday. When you look at this forecast map below, you can see that the same areas are being targeted on the evening of April 30th:

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The cold air may be a bigger factor farther west near Kansas City. Take a look at this forecast map valid one day earlier:

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This map shows the storm as it is still out west and about to move out into the plains Kansas City is deep into the cold air at this point which may protect Tornado Alley from being targeted.

There is a lot to analyze in the coming days with this unique and complex set up. Thank you for participating in this LRC Forecast Experience blog. Thank you for all of the birthday messages coming in from the various social media sources. Yes, I am a ridiculously old 55 today. Wow!

Gary

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