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A Front, Tropical Moisture and Gordon?

Good Sunday bloggers,

I hope your Labor day weekend is going well. We are tracking three main weather features the next 5-7 days that will have an impact on our weather. Those features are a front, tropical moisture and the chance of a named tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

First let’s talk about the front.

This has been the focus for very heavy rain and thunderstorms across Nebraska and Iowa the last two days with amounts of 2″-7″. Eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri have been on the southern edge of these main rain areas. This will be the case today and for Labor day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around both days with the most coverage northwest of KC.

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SUNDAY NIGHT: The front will sag south a bit, so the main thunderstorms will be a bit farther south into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. These will have a chance to drift into the KC area before they fall apart.

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LABOR DAY: The front will lift back north a bit, but we add in a flow of tropical moisture from the south. So, this means scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible for all locations. We are also watching for the chance of a named system in the Caribbean Sea.

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TUESDAY-THURSDAY: The front will be the focus for heavy rain and thunderstorms as the tropical moisture gets intertwined with the front. Could Gordon form and track to between New Orleans and Fort Walton beach? It could, and whatever it becomes, the moisture will head north and may be a factor in our weather at the end of the week.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS: The location of the three features mentioned above will determine who sees the most rainfall. Right now it looks like northwest Missouri, northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska and Iowa will have the best chance to see 4″-6″ of rain or more.

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Locations to the southeast of KC may see under .25″-.50″ of rain. This is, needless to say, a tight gradient and makes for a tough forecast.

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This gradient could easily shift northwest or southeast by 50-100 miles. It is going to depend, mostly on the location of the front. If Gordon forms, it would not be a factor until around or after day 5.

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Have a great rest of your holiday weekend.

Please don’t drink/text and drive.

Jeff Penner

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