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A Freeze Is Likely Within Ten Days

Good morning bloggers,

The World Series Begins Tuesday In Los Angeles

  • 104 degrees today
  • 103 degrees Tuesday
  • 100 degrees Wednesday

How incredible is this? Record breaking heat out west as this pattern continues to set up for the season.

Weather Discussion:

We hope everyone had a great weekend. The weather pattern continues to set up for the winter. The LRC will be set in around four to five weeks and we are still near the beginning, now around 2 1/2 weeks into the new pattern.  We have around 3 to 4 more weeks of this first cycle that we have not seen or experienced yet. For those of you following the computer models from day to day, then you know how different it looks today from even yesterday. The models are all over the place.  The snow is no longer showing up and I haven’t spent even a few seconds analyzing or thinking about this early snow since it didn’t seem to fit to me.  Take a look at the latest GFS precipitation forecast for the next ten days:

1

This has not been a good trend for California.  This has been somewhat interesting for Kansas City, however. We have had some pretty heavy precipitation events during the past two weekends, but these missed other parts of Kansas.

2This map on the left shows the 240 hour, or ten day, forecast of the 500 mb flow. There is a rather substantial trough in the east. Let’s be careful about jumping to conclusions over these three to seven day stretches. If you have been following the LRC for the past few years, then you likely know that it is a long cycle. Last year cycled on an average of around 59 days. So, it is 59 days worth of pattern to analyze, not just one storm, one week.  Look at what happens just a few days later.

3

This map on the right shows how the eastern trough lifted out and was replaced by a western trough just two days later.  Again, I stress patience as we analyze this pattern.  There are many factors to consider for the winter forecast and for the pattern that we will be experiencing from now through next September.  The first three weeks have featured troughs swinging into the Rocky Mountains, intensifying out over the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys, and then lifting out over the northeast and weakening. And, now we are going into a phase of eastern troughs for a few days. Let’s see how long this lasts, and let’s see what happens next. We are watching the evolution of this years LRC.

A Likely Freeze Within 10 Days:

These next three maps show the low temperature forecast for Friday, Saturday, and a week from Wednesday:

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6

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With this eastern trough swinging through during these next ten days, the potential for a freeze is pretty high near KC. Let’s see how this looks as we move through this week.  Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the the LRC.  Go to Weather2020 and click on the blog over there to join in the conversation.  Have a great day!

Gary

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