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A Flooding Rain Event In KC This Morning

Good morning bloggers,

IMG_0115We had a flooding rain event last night and the factors that lead up to it were predictable and incredible.  Our weather team picked out a monsoon wave that formed on Monday near the California/Nevada border.  This wave clearly developed and intensified and rotated around the “heat wave creating machine” or anticyclone.  The wave tracked across the northern Rocky Mountains and then dropped southeast over Nebraska and Kansas, before tracking into western Missouri on Wednesday. This caused our second completely cloudy July day (remember July 4th) with rain off and on. Then, the influence on the front was also incredible and we picked out the developing set-up as we moved through yesterday.

The rainfall amounts have varied greatly in our viewing area. On the south side, it was already saturated from Saturday nights target. This time 6.55″ of rain was in my rain gauge as you can see in this picture.  How much rain did you receive?

Here is a video that shows the developing wave out west, and what is happening next. You will be able to see how this all is being caused by the pattern we are in this summer, the pattern that actually set up last year in October as described by my Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, that I called “the theory” 15 years ago, and you, the bloggers, named it the LRC. Maybe it will be named that some day?  Take a look at the video:

The Southwest Monsoon Influence On The Flooding Rain from Weather2020 on Vimeo.

Here is the forecast that was made by our team last night:

Unique Temps Current2

As we showed yesterday, the set-up was there for a flooding event, and it happened. I am just in awe right now.  A neighbor came over just now and we looked at the golf course at the Links at Lionsgate, where the tournament is supposed to begin today, and there is no way. I couldn’t believe it, but the 3rd fairway is under water.

Things will be calming down for a few days. As described in todays video, another summer system will cycle through next week, and we have to monitor that set-up closely.  And, on the accuracy of this forecast, there has to be an understanding of how forecasting events like this works.  Remember, this type of an event does not exist before it happens. What I mean: By 3 PM we identified the features that would place KC in the target for this storm.  We then made the forecast for it to strike last night and it did!

Thank you for participating and sharing in this weather experience. Have a great Thursday! We will look ahead tomorrow.  We are also having a great discussion over on Weather2020.com if you want to join in the conversation.

Gary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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