Good morning bloggers,
There is a fast moving storm system approaching our area this morning, but we will get just the backside of the storm as it digs/intensifies. This storm will become much stronger as it moves into the northeastern part of Missouri later tonight.
- Now – 6 PM: Dry with increasing clouds. High: 43°
- 6 PM – Midnight: Cloudy with a 60% chance of rain showers. Increasing northwest winds.
- 10 PM-4 AM: A band of rain possibly mixing with or briefly changing to snow with no accumulation expected. Windy!
Let’s look at the storm as it is now dropping into the plains, digging, and intensifying.
This first maps shows the 500 mb flow valid at 3 AM tonight. The storm approaching will likely intensify just enough to form bands of precipitation, with one final and main band moving across around midnight. This last band will be associated with increasing PVA (Positive Vorticity Advection) that you can see with the black dashed line I drew on the map. As this swings across a strong cold front will move through.
This next map shows the 500 mb flow just 9 hours later at noon Tuesday. A fully mature upper low will be developing just southwest of Chicago and there will be a band of heavy snow near the Windy City on Tuesday. As this is passing by us to our east we will have a cold and blustery day tomorrow. The flow aloft is blocking up over Canada with the two upper level ridges on either side of a developing Polar Vortex. This blocking is forcing the jet stream farther south and another storm is developing off the west coast by tomorrow afternoon. This will likely be our next storm that may affect us by the weekend.
This next map, above, shows the 500 mb forecast valid at 6 PM Friday. An upper low will likely be developing and closing off over California. What happens to this storm at around this point is being forecast by every computer model I looked at, but what happens next varies widely as it moves our way. It does look like we will have a good chance of rain/thunderstorms sometime this weekend.
I would like to thank everyone who watched the Pet Telethon benefitting the Humane Society of Greater Kansas City. There was a touching few minutes, well many of them, but for me it was special when we had our reunion of Stormy’s litter from 12 years ago. Four siblings all together for the first time since they were 8 weeks old. They are now 12 year olds and here is one picture from last night:
Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog. We will go over the details of this changing weather pattern on 41 Action News tonight.