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A Fall Change Finally Arrives This Week

Good morning bloggers,

In July, Kansas City had 20 days in a row 85° or hotter. This happened from July 6th to July 25th.  KC then went through all of August without even a five day stretch of 85° or hotter.  Today will be the seventh day in a row of 85° or hotter, but then the streak will end on Tuesday.  It has been a rather hot beginning to fall.  According to the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis a unique pattern is now beginning to evolve.  I recommend extreme patience over the next few weeks as we begin to see features that will be part of next years pattern. We are likely not there yet. The first week of October is when we must pay much closer attention.  For now, a fall change is on the way and a cold front is very slowly moving across the plains. It has already been in the plains states for days.

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This 7 AM surface map above shows the nearly stationary front, that is actually just drifting southeast this morning.  North of the front there has been an area of rain with temperatures in the 40s with a very tropical air mass lies ahead of this front. By early Tuesday the front will finally be near KC:

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The forcing mechanisms to cause heavy thunderstorms will be weakening significantly by Tuesday, so there is a lot of doubt as to how much rain will get to areas south and east of KC.  KC may be on the edge of the area that receives any rainfall amounts over 1/2 inch. This is already something a bit different than what we have been experiencing in the past year.

Hurricane Maria continues to spin off the southeast United States coast. It is forecast to weaken and then get ejected out to sea. You can also see Hurricane Lee on this satellite picture:

SAT_CUS_IR4

There are big changes taking place in the overall pattern and these tropical systems are caught in the transition period.

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You can see how fast Maria ejects out over the Atlantic Ocean by the end of the weak and tracks well north of Bermuda.  Let’s track all these changes this week and open up the discussion to any questions you may have. Thank you for reading the blog today featuring Weather2020 and the CPH. Have a great start to the week. I am now on Sports Radio 810, WHB, so I will wrap up for today.

Gary

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