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A couple of more nice days

Good morning,

    Mother Nature keeps giving us chances to winterize the yard or house or put up lights.  Today is another chance but time is running out.  Big changes appear imminent Saturday as colder air pours into our area.   But will it rain or snow?  I’ll take anything at this point.  Jeff Penner compiled some statistics last night that revealed that 2012, at this point, is the 2nd driest year ever.

 

     There may not be a whole lot more precipitation this year, at least liquid precipitation.  I’ve looked at some data that has a half inch to three quarters of an inch of precipitation between now and December 21st.

     As for today and tomorrow, the weather still looks uneventful.  Tomorrow may feature more clouds than today. 

 

  But a southerly wind could produce one more day in the 60s before the front sags through the region and begins a big change.  Temperatures should fall into the 40s Saturday and again on Sunday.  At this time, it appears a storm will develop and deepen near Kansas City.  This could still bring us our first significant taste of Winter Weather. 

I say “could bring” us some wintry weather but I’m not sure about that.  I think most of us, who would like to see snow, would like to see the location of the low, farther west and a lot farther south.  To me, the above map, suggests a quick band of rain followed by windy, colder, cloudy conditions with a chance for snow showers Sunday night into Monday.    This storm should stay north of our area as it passes into the Great Lakes early next week.

Have a great day, 

Brett

 

 

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33 comments to A couple of more nice days

  • hobart

    Yep. Just like I said yesterday. Precip chances are slim at best and getting slimmer.

  • Good blog Brett. Praying for precip!

    But I do take exception with the “driest year ever” comment. How about driest since we’ve kept records(just over 100 years I think)? Which is a blink of the eye, in the history of this planet. ;) I see way too many times, people pushing agendas, using this shock statement. When in reality, it’s not that big of a deal.

  • Kole Christian

    I understand that this might not be the second driest year ever, but it’s dry enough where it is a big deal and it’s impacting many farms severely

  • trinlivco

    Brett, Yes I know it MIGHT rain and get cold. I think its funny (not really) for all of mans so called technology we still cannot predict what mother nature is going to do 3 or 4 days from now let alone tomorrow. This drought is a killer just pray it will end soon. I know it will end some time in the future just hope sooner than later. TR

  • mowermike

    Latest GFS does have snow here late Sunday and Sunday night. But, it’s just a model run showing a possible trend. However, it does show more of storm then before. Like Brett said, might be Friday before we can sample this one better.

    At least we have something to track…..it might end up being nothing, but I don’t think so.

    • mukustink

      You always say the models are so accurate 5 days out. Should we not take the model run as gospel intead of a trend? Don’t change your tune now!

  • mowermike

    If we can get stronger push of cold and get this to deepen a bit further south, we might be in business to end the snowflake contest.

    • You are SOOOO full of it……I need to put my boots on,just to read your comments….

    • sedsinkc

      Something to watch on later runs to see if any consistency or if NAM agrees once we get within the 84 hour window, which will be tomorrow. Would like to see this trough become less positively tilted sooner and dig a little more than currently progged by GFS.

  • Kole Christian

    The GFS has been picking up on this storm for awhile, it trended towards more snow recently but it hasn’t been consistant on the cold part. We should get something though.
    “http://wxmaps.org/pix/mcigfs.png”

  • cws9

    I’m guessing it just isn’t going to be cold enough for my Dec. 10th snowflake contest entry. Still might see some flurries though.

  • mowermike

    cws9,

    It will be plenty cold by Sunday night and the morning of the 10th…question is, will there be a storm?
    I think your pick is in the game as of now.

  • craigmac

    Is there going to be a winter 2013 prediction as there has been in the past few years?

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    Someone just pulled the cord that is attached to the light bulb above Gary’s head lol! I’ve been saying for the past month that we are rivaling the driest year on record and they are just now bringing up graphics of this, smh lol. The Drought is horrible for farmers. A lot of them have had to quit farming altogether due to the drought. I thought KSHB’s segment when they did a broadcast from down around Spring Hill, Ks out in the cornfield really hit the nail on the head. I’d love to have a snowflake contest entry of Dec. 10th csw9. You have a pretty decent shot at winning the diamonds. See what happens, there is a lot that will happen between now and Sun night, gift it until Fri or Sat morning before u get to excited. When is the system suppose to come onshore for sampling Gary?

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    I meant to say *give it until Fri or Sat morning*

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    Late Thursday
    and early Friday, the upper air network will be able to Sample the
    approaching upper wave in the Pacific northwest and this will aid in
    model consistency and continuity and ultimately lead to a higher
    confidence forecast. Nevermind, answered my own question :)

  • DougHeadyImpersonator1

    Hot off the press at 4pm. “Current guidance suggests, subject to
    change with the next model runs, a surface low developing in the
    Texas Panhandle and then tracking east and northeast near the
    Interstate 44 corridor. Such a scenario would be more favorable for
    snow Sunday into possibly early Monday. On the other side of the
    envelope, there are model solutions that favor low pressure
    development in the northern plains which would limit the amount of
    any winter precipitation for northeast Kansas and northwest
    Missouri. Situational awareness is advised for this portion of the
    forecast through the rest of the week.”

  • ChiefsFan

    Craigmac, Gary and the 41 weather team gave there winter weather predictions last month

  • Theo

    There is no moisture. No moisture = no snowstorm. You can bring in all the cold air you want. 20% relative humidity will not support a storm. Wishcasters go home.

  • Kole Christian

    Yes please Theo, leave, because theoretically and historically it is more likely snow than not. Take your wishcasting elsewhere

  • stjoeattorney

    well we need rain or snow but nov, dec and jan are the driest months of the year. we will se the extent of te drought with dead trees in the spring. this warm breezy air has also pull the little rain we did get out of the ground…..this is going to be a 32-40 month dry spell.

  • sportsfreaked

    How many times have we heard the pattern is changing? How many times has the rain missed us only to hit Columbia and St. Louis? I will beleive it when I wake up and see either rain or snow. I see Gary is on vacation again. Scripps is th eplace to work I guess as ary has what 10-20 weeks of vacation a year LOL.

  • Emaw

    As always, I’m looking forward to posting my snowfall totals on Monday, before we warm back into the 50s later next week. Even if we did get 1″ or so of wind blown snow (which we won’t ) it would do nothing for the drought. We need rain and that’s hard to come by anymore, especially in winter. Zonal flow will dominate again this winter.

  • JohnNCWX

    Things are changing…December is going to be active for the eastern 2/3rds-including the KC area. Note it!

  • restull

    The 00Z GFS forecasts virtually nothing for most of Kansas through Dec 21st! Maybe we will get lucky. Or maybe this is just the continued onslaught of drought. Most of the southern and western 2/3rds of Kansas need 20-30 inches of rain to end this drought that started 2 years ago.

  • KUweatherman

    That graphic… Dates on one side for part of the list then the opposite side for the other. Hope that’s not what was shown on TV.

  • Weatherfreak01

    The NWS is one of the things I watch. I noticed that the chances for snow this weekend went down. They were as high as 50%, now the highest chance is 30%. It could go back up, but it is never a good sign when the chances go down.