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A Cold Front Will Move Through Tonight

Good morning bloggers,

We are still experiencing the dying old LRC with this front tonight.  A cold front will move through KC by around 10 or 11 PM, and there is a chance of a few thunderstorms as it moves through.  This is still the old pattern, on its last breath.  Something very different will begin this weekend, and as we have discussed many times; thank goodness.  I am sure we are all on board that we will welcome the old pattern to the door, and say goodbye, and we hope to never see you again. And, we will never see it again as every years pattern is unique.  Something very good is showing up on the models, and as I say every year, be patient. One storm, one trough, one exciting week, is just part of the overall pattern.  It is just that we went almost an entire year without one of these systems, so exhibit A of this years LRC may be more important than usual.

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This map above shows a cold front moving through KC around 10 or 11 PM tonight. Thunderstorms are likely along the front, but will they form over the city or miss KC?  In last years pattern it would be a struggle and there would be no wide spread thunderstorm activity.  In the new pattern, very different things will be happening.  We apparently are not there yet.  This front appears it will act more like last years pattern.  After this front moves through, then we will be within a couple of days of something very different happening.  This map below shows the severe weather risk today:

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We will monitor the front closely tonight, and then our attention will focus on something very different that is evolving. Take a look below:

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Now, look below:

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This map above, shows the pattern around one year ago on October 2, 2017. Notice how we also had a big trough in the west. So, what is different?  Watch closely in the next few days/weeks as how the trough forms, kicks out, and moves across North America will be very, very different from a year ago.

Now, look at one of the rainfall forecasts that came out overnight for the next seven days:

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A lot to think about. Have a great day!

Gary

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