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Good morning bloggers,
There is a lot to go over today as a storm has our attention for later this week. A cold front will pass through today with a chance of showers near the front. Cold air will blast back into the area and how much of this cold air gets in here is big factor for what will happen with the mid to late week storm system.
This week’s time line:
- This morning: A cold front will move through before noon. The wind will be from the south with temperatures in the 50s ahead of the front.
- This afternoon: The wind shifts to the northwest with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Strong northwest winds will blow at speeds of 20-35 mph.
- Tuesday: Low temperatures near 20°. Sunny and cold with a high in the mid to upper 30s
- Wednesday: Staying dry with increasing clouds. A storm will be approaching the area with cold air getting trapped over the area
- Wednesday Night: Various types of precipitation develop and spread across our viewing area. Snow will form across northern areas and snow, sleet, or freezing rain developing farther south. Accumulations are likely of all of these types and significant problems are likely going to affect us by early Thursday morning
- Thursday: Snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain will be likely across our viewing area. Accumulations are again likely with the heavy precipitation shutting off by early afternoon.
This picture is from Friday night’s snow showers. I had been at work for the past two year’s worth of snowstorms, which weren’t many. So, I finally was able to get outside and act like a kid for a while. Will we have more snow this week?
A cold front will move through this morning. Here is the 7 AM surface map:
The cold front will be moving into an increasingly moist air mass and rain showers will begin developing. This will most likely happen just as the cold front passes Kansas City so we will likely stay mostly dry today with the exception of possibly one or two brief rain showers. Colder air will then move in, with a second surge of colder air likely by Tuesday night.
This is obviously a very difficult forecast. A strong storm dropping down the west coast will affect Los Angeles first. This is a strong system dropping down into the southwestern states and you can click on the map for a larger view:
The storm system that we are about to experience will be digging down the west coast and affecting Southern California tomorrow and tomorrow night. 1 to 2 feet of snow are likely across the Southern California mountains around Big Bear Lake. This storm system will then turn our way. And, you can see the cold surge moving south around the eastern storm, yes another northeastern storm system. The cold air surging in Tuesday night is of Arctic origin. How much cold air surges in will be one of the factors for Wednesday nights storm system. So, FACTOR #1: Cold air surging in Tuesday night ahead of the storm.
Kansas City will be deeply into the cold air by Wednesday morning as the storm turns our way. The upper level storm is another factor that is somewhat important. So, FACTOR #2: The development and track of the main upper level storm.
The upper level storm will be developing over California. Let’s look at where the storm will be on Tuesday night:
The storm we are discussing hasn’t even developed yet, and this is why we really have to take a deep breath and see how it forms in the next two days. After it develops we will get a better handle on where it will track. This is a rather unusual set-up and even though the track of the upper level storm is very important there are other factors that are also coming into play.
Factor #3: The depth of the cold air!
The NAM model this morning has come out with the 850 mb (5,000 foot level) temperatures colder than last night’s run and farther south. This trend will likely lead to a better chance of snow from this storm.
Did I say this was unusual? Okay, I have been writing this blog entry for hours now. I am going to take a break. Let’s discuss this in the comments section the rest of the morning into the afternoon. The latest NAM model has snow, then sleet, then snow and heavy amounts in our viewing area. And, then what it does at the surface and other layers of the atmosphere complicate this forecast even further. We will begin making our precipitation amounts forecast later today.
Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather Blog. We will try to update the blog later this afternoon or evening, so check back in. Look for the updated blog entry by around 5 PM this afternoon. Have a great start to the week.