A Cold Christmas Week

Merry Christmas Eve bloggers,

A fast moving storm will impact areas well to the south of Kansas City on Christmas Day.  The latest trend on the computer models has this storm tracking just too far south to have any impact on the Kansas City viewing area.  If you have travel plans to the south, however, you must pay close attention to this storm as it will likely produce a white Christmas across Oklahoma extending north into extreme southern Kansas and then east across the southeastern 1/3 of Missouri into Arkansas. Here is the track of the storm with the forecast precipitation amounts by the 06z GFS model:

This storm has just come on shore near the west coast. It will be going through a transition as it digs south and intensifies as it approaches Oklahoma.  The track of the storm is not set in stone yet. Let’s see how the models handle this storm system today.  The storm will likely become a snow making machine for areas that rarely have a white Christmas.

There will be a significant winter storm and there is also going to be a spring-like storm in the warm sector.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed a moderate risk of severe weather area across parts of the deep south. You can click on the map for a larger view.  This strong storm system will interact with some rich Gulf of Mexico air and there may be some significant severe weather on Christmas Day.

I have some last minute Christmas shopping to get done today and then it’s off to KSHB to track Santa. I will be tracking Santa’s journey on the 10 PM newscast tonight on 41 Action News.  Have a great day and we will discuss the latest developments with this storm. Thank you for spending a few minutes reading the Action Weather blog.

Gary Lezak

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64 comments to A Cold Christmas Week

  • paxman

    Merry Christmas Gary! You have done an awesome job keeping us accurately informed over the past week. Thanks for great blog that you provide us…it’s alive and doing well! Love hearing you on 810 in the mornings. Hope Santa treats you well!!!!!

    • Thank you Paxman,

      The blog will have it’s biggest month of the year. We just need some more exciting weather. This storm may be a bit frustrating watching it go to the south.

      Merry Christmas! And, maybe we will see a few snowflakes today or tomorrow.

      I will be on Sportsradio 810 this morning and I am going to play the snowflake contest winners reaction.

  • Freeze Miser

    Oh well, a few flurries now and then on Christmas will be nice. On to the storm at the end of the week!

  • u10girls

    Merry Christmas to the entire KSHB team. I enjoy the 100 degree days much more than the cold and snow so missing this storm does not bother me one bit.

    • Merry Christmas to you and your family too! I like 75 degrees the best! But, if it is going to be cold, it might as well snow.


      • davidmcg

        Agreed. I also prefer 75, but if it shall be cold, let it snow. Is this for real, a 6″ prediction for Dallas? That will cripple that city.

        • sedsinkc

          Little or no snow for Dallas, but 6″ is possible in Oklahoma City.

        • sedsinkc

          NWS prediction for Dallas downtown is less than 1/2″ of accumulation possible. As you go north, gradually more snow is expected. Northern suburb of McKinney could have “less than 1 inch” of accumulation. Central Oklahoma is going to get the most accumulation.

  • blue8091

    Merry Christmas Gary and the KSHB weather team! Thanks so much for taking the time to write this blog – that I enjoy on a daily basis. I hope you all have a great holiday!

    George – I am so sad to see you go. You will be sorely missed but best wishes and good luck to you! Just because you’ll be in FL does not mean that we cannot continue to enjoy your company here on the blog – you’re KC family!

    Merry Christmas to all the blog regulars who keep it positive around here too!

    Baby it’s COLD outside…. :)

  • nsewest

    Good Morning! Have been reading your blog for several years, Gary. Finally decided to step up and get a username so I can put my two cents in as a weather enthusiast. To repeat many others, thank you Gary for taking the time to blog; it is really fun to read, especially when there is snow in the forecast! Merry Christmas to all!

  • heavysnow

    I wish I had somebody like Gary out here in St Louis, the local channels are not good

  • heavysnow

    I truly believe this storm is going to produce a very good snow in my area

  • JacobHoneycutt

    Katie Horner will be joining Channel 4 in St Louis on January 7th. Good enough for you? Lol

  • Weatherwatcher

    Merry Christmas Gary to you and your staff!

    On behalf of myself and all of my Middle School Students, we wish you a blessed and prosperous 2013 as well.

    Thank you for all of your hard work and dedication to the people of Kansas City.


  • rred95

    I get the idea if it snows friday it wont accumulate is it looking that way?

  • luvsno

    To the whole KSHB team and all of the bloggers have a wonderful Christmas. God bless you all.

  • heavysnow


    Now the system is on shore, where are you seeing the most significant snow in MIssouri? 12z NAM moved it a little more south, but still had St Louis area with 4 to 8 inches.

    Where is the storm located right now, I see a bit of a spin in Nevada.

  • stjoeattorney

    well we had a fun week, these next 2 pieces of energy will not pan out one tp far south, they need moisture too, and the second on friday zips by with no moisture. well cn’t have them all. we still have 85 day of posible snow and the cold will help on the bugs.


  • sedsinkc

    So good last week’s storm wasn’t a bust for KC, otherwise local snow enthusiasts would be losing their minds watching what last week looked like perhaps a major storm here go too far south tomorrow and the one behind that looking too weak to do much at the end of this week.

  • rred95

    looks like we are in for another long stretch of non eventful weather. yes good thing we at least got couple inches last week.

  • sedsinkc

    Despite two significant precipitation events this month, it is looking more likely that December will end up being the 9th consecutive month of below average precipitation officially at KCI. Last week, when tomorrow’s storm looked promising for us, I had hope we could break the string of dry months. No hope now.

  • Adam Penney

    Active stretch of this pattern is now coming to a close. Other than insignificant events with fast moving systems, there shouldn’t be anything of note until this part of the pattern returns.

    The fun should return around the last ten days of January lasting through mid-February.

  • Theo

    Fun? The weather has done nothing. I can’t believe the BS you bloggers throw around.

  • MikeL

    I agree with others that the chance of significant snow has ended for an extended period of time. I’ve had 2.8 inches at my house this winter which isn’t much.

    Two winters ago my first inch of snow didn’t happen until well into January and we finished with around 38 inches. So you never know.

    Still, with the drought and heavy snow tracks missing us north and south I expect well below average snowfall this winter.

  • McCabe58

    Sweet.. Just cold weather from here on out.. Theo, grow up.

  • f00dl3

    9″ of snow this winter. Had 2.8″ from this storm. Won’t have any more snow until late January. This storm will give us 6-8″ next time it passes us, and the two storms after that will pass to our south. Onward into Spring!

  • dogncatmom

    Merry Christmas to Gary, Brett, Jeff and all the bloggers!

  • redavis

    Gary: Do you think Jefferson City, MO area will see 1-2″ of snow which is what some of the local stations are stating? Normally there is an area outside of the heavy snow/Winter Storm Warning area that receives lighter snow amounts. How far north & west do you feel will see snow & where will the cutoff line be from SW to NE aross the state where no accumulating snow falls?? Thanks

  • McCabe58

    It’s weird how this storm is going just south of the entire northwest part of missouri. It’s like every other place in mo is getting snow. Harrisonville, which is 10 miles south of me is supposed to get an inch and all we’re getting is some flurries/snow showers

  • f00dl3

    I find it more interesting how in years we don’t get much snow areas south of us – roughly along the I-44 corridor and then kind of along a line from there to Lubbock, TX end up getting more snow than we do. Many times the TX Panhandle will get their frist 8″ snowfall event at least a month ahead of us. You would think it would be the other way around, but such is the folly of nature.

  • cweb

    Any snow befor 1-4-13? Dont like to leave town if snow is in the forecast. Merry Christmas

  • caliinkc

    We had a few small, lazy flurries mid-morning up in Plattsburg today… it was nice while it lasted!

  • McCabe58

    Any chance at all that some of the snow south creeps up this way?? Wishful thinking lol

  • ChiefsFan

    Merry Christmas to the NBC 41 weather team and all the bloggers.

  • heavysnow

    Looking at the stalled cold front and the current jet stream……I don’t see how this storm follows the path that the last NAM Model run showed

  • sedsinkc

    What might have been here, had the KC-favorable storm track from last week’s model runs verified: blizzard watches posted for SE Missouri and adjacent areas for tomorrow’s storm.

    • MikeL

      Maybe they have, but I don’t recall ever seeing blizzard watches posted in those areas before. Wow! Yeah…what could have been.

  • heavysnow

    In fact, I am going to say this is one of the storms the models will be wrong about. I have been a part of MANY storms that forecasters said were going to nail my area and then have the storm go 50 miles another direction. I have a feeling I am going to get the snow this time.

  • heavysnow

    I expect to see significant snow. I just don’t buy the low following the path, it doesn’t make sense. Look at the maps. You can see the stalled front in southern Missouri and the Jet stream. I expect the storm to follow the path into the Missouri Bootheel

  • heavysnow

    BTW- I completely disagree with the 18z NAM. Funny since the 7 previous NAM solutions had 8 or more inches of snow in St Louis area and the 18z acted like their was a dome around STL

  • stl78

    Where r u located heavy? N county,s county,Arnold.ballwin?

  • heavysnow


  • McCabe58

    Lol heavysnow I don’t think the wishful thinking is gonna help much on this one. Looks like you may miss out on this one too

    • I,m BAAACK!!!! I Got leid in Bora Bora…….WOW….I,m wish all of you were there…..NOT……..WOW!!!! I,ll explain more at a later time…..I have PICTURES I,m sure you will love to see……Beautiful weather…..Lots of FUN…..NO CYCLONES!!!!!!! Jet lag sucks…..I hope everyone behaved well,why I was gone….Love ya….Peace out…..signed, Kevin Pres. of KFC(Kevins Forecast Center) Have a good 1,and MERRY CHRISTMAS. :) :) :) :) :) That trip was worth 5, smilley faces, out of 5…….WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • McCabe58

    KC weather sucks :(

  • heavysnow

    If it doesn’t snow in St Louis from this storm then Mother Nature can kiss my ……..

  • Adam Penney

    Boy, you gotta feel for heavysnow from STL. Guy was so excited and the models have just killed St. Louis. From possible Major Winter Storm, to nothing.


  • MikeL

    Yep, I feel your pain heavysnow. I was just looking at the 00z NAM and shaking my head. These weather models are soul crushers for sure…lol. We need to start a support group.

  • heavysnow

    BTW- I don’t buy either of the last 2 NAM runs of giving us no snow at all

    I should never actually expect snow, it NEVER happens

  • heavysnow

    What is funny, the GFS currently has the Low in a pretty decent spot at the 33 hour and yet shows no snow in St Louis. Any other time you see a Low like that there is snow to the Northwest

  • redavis

    What are the models showing for Friday – Friday nights storm system?? For central MO up through NE MO I am hearing there could be light to moderate snowfall accumulations. Also has anyone heard if the models are hinting on any kind of New Years Eve or New Years day storm. I see a chance of snow for Jefferson City, MO which is where I live close to for Dec 31st. I think I remember Gary mentioning there could be another big storm around the first of the new year in one of his blogs in the past week. Does anyone have any updated information??

  • Adam Penney


    friday maybe some flurries.

    New Years, no storm.

  • McCabe58

    Merry Christmas to all the bloggers good and bad! And to the 41 news team! Wish we had some snow to talk about!

  • McCabe58

    P.s. is there absolutely no chance of a snow shower making it up here tomorrow? Snow looks to be drifting this way in south east Kansas

  • McCabe58

    And to probably answer my own question, I’m sure someone will inform me that the precip I’m seeing in SE Kansas is either verga or our dew point is too low for anything to happen here