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A Changing Pattern

Good morning bloggers,

Cloud cover moved in overnight and acted like a blanket holding temperatures in the middle to upper 20s overnight. Another band of clouds will likely move in this afternoon. And, then our attention shifts to this:

Look at what is now being forecast by most of the models for Saturday morning.  This is the NAM 500 mb forecast valid at 6 AM Saturday.  An upper low will be developing today over New Mexico and Texas. It is then forecast to move our way.  Just looking at this level of the atmosphere I would conclude that a nice comma head of snow would develop near and around the center of this storm system as it looks really dynamic. But, it is lacking moisture. Take a look at the surface forecast from this same NAM model:

The blue dotted 534 line is the 5,340 meter thickness line showing that it would definitely be cold enough to snow if any precipitation forms. On this model run the NAM predicts not even one hundredth of an inch of precipitation anywhere close to Kansas City.  The pattern at the surface is being influenced by stronger features moving across the northern plains into Canada.

The GFS model has a similar surface pattern but it does predict some light precipitation in our area:

The 06z GFS model, which was somewhat consistent from it’s earlier model runs, shows a comma head of precipitation being forecast for Saturday morning with that 5,340 meter thickness line also near the center of the upper level low.  Thickness is a measure of the distance between the 1000 mb layer and the 500 mb layer.  The larger the distance, the warmer that layer will be. The 540 1o00-500 mb thickness line is often considered the 50/50 rain snow changeover line. So, with this set-up we would be cold enough for any precipitation that falls would likely be in the form of snow.

After this system moves by the pattern is seemingly in rapid transition and the 06z GFS model had a much faster and more progressive pattern that what was being predicted by the models the past few days. This faster solution of next week’s storm is something we will be concentrating on today as well, as the latest model trend has some snow from this system around Tuesday.  After this storm moves by the flow is forecast to amplify even more.  Let’s see how the models trend today.

The weather pattern has certainly been more interesting this winter than last year. We were still over five weeks away from our first inch of snow a year ago.  This more exciting and energetic pattern will continue and we suddenly have another system to track during the next 48 hours.  Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather blog.  Let us know if you have any questions or comments.  We will go over the details of this and next weeks weather pattern on 41 Action News today and tonight.

Gary

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116 comments to A Changing Pattern

  • Finally I think we are seeing some real change in the pattern! Very dynamic, but also more difficult for the models to handle. Looks like next wks storm is now shifted dramatically to Tuesday, and packs quite a punch. Stay tuned, I’m sure it will change again. lol

    • zimbokc

      What a sweet-spot we have hit this year between the paltry winter last year and the bears of winter the two years before!

  • Jerry

    What did this southern low that is tracking our way look like the last time through your cycle? I don’t see any system like it that tracked our way from the southwest around 50 days ago.

    Also — that new year’s snowfall that we got…what storm system paralleled that one the last time through the cycle?

  • R-Dub

    So, yesterday you were very confident the flow would flatten, with the jet stream retreating to the north. Now today you expect
    “the flow to amplify even more.”

    It seems like if there were predictable, repeating cycles in the upper level flow, this kind of ambivalence wouldn’t be a problem.

  • hobart

    Once again, the long range forecast proves to be useless. Next weeks touted warm up is fast disappearing. Now it’s down to one day at most. Damn!

  • Emaw

    Hobart , don’t sweat it, anything on that 7 day beyond day 2 can and will change several times!

  • mattmaisch

    New GFS snowfall map for next week. Threading the needle, but showing a decent snow.

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013010312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=144″

    Matt

    • mukustink

      It’s fun to look at but I doubt it will verify. You know it’s going to change 20 times from now till then.

  • Emaw

    It’s not going to snow Saturday and it’s going to rain next week and by that time the snow will be melted.

    • hobart

      Let’s hope that’s how it plays out.

    • R-Dub

      You basing this off the January 2 LRC or the Jan 3 version? I’m gonna wait to hear about the January 7 version before making my predictions for the 8th and 9th.

    • mattmaisch

      You may indeed be right, but the information I posted is from the GFS that just came across, and as you can see, it shows accumulating snow next week instead of rain.

  • sportsfreaked

    Top of the morning to you Gary. Happy New Year to you and Ihope Santa was good to you. Looks as though the weather is keeping you on your toes for a change. Sorry to see George go enjoyed reading his blog posts. Hope the new year brings you a new met soon. Have a good day and lets hope for some moisture either in snow or rain!

  • Emaw

    Matt, the last couple days the models showed rain and a warm up next week, what will they show tomorrow ? Personally I like it when the models show skin!

  • mukustink

    I agree with Emaw! Models and skin equals :). I see they wasted no time in getting George’s facebook thing off of the side of the blog. Gary hire a female weather person to replace George. We would prefer a hottie! Let’s hope for some moisture of some kind!

  • sedsinkc

    It’s surprising (to me, at least) that a storm in the SW US with sufficient moisture to drop near a foot of snow in the mountains of SW Texas, that is quite close to the Gulf of Mexico (moisture source), and that appears to be strong and negatively tilted as it approaches us, could drop no precipitation in our area, as the NAM suggested. Such a scenario usually drops moderate to heavy amounts of precipitation here.

    • It’s a tough one to explain Seds! The system comes up right over us. It may still produce some snow. The latest GFS does now model a small area with accumulation. I will show this tonight on our Powercast. Let’s see how it looks as it forms tonight or tomorrow. The second storm has a lot of questions as well. In the last cycle of the LRC this next storm was just a fast moving short wave. Sometimes these fast moving short waves can produce a quick band of heavy snow, but it would have to track south of KC.

      Have a great Thursday evening.

  • McCabe58

    Lol muku I agree with you on one thing finally. They definitely do need to at least consider a female met. It would change it up a bit for sure! And rdub I agree with what you said as well, Gary did call for the flow to flatten and all of a sudden today it’s going to be more amplified? I’m not complaining one bit if this does happen. Just curious how Gary couldn’t see this just yesterday?

  • rred95

    Things change. especially the weather. The change wasnt showing up yesterday today it is. tomorrow may look flat again…. Maybe you can get jermery nelson to come back?

  • Emaw

    My vote is for a hottie !

  • rred95

    as far as chiefs go reid would be the best choice at this time. he has won in nfl, he would calm the waters somewhat and keep some of the season ticket holders from bailing. my only concern is does he still have it in him,, the drive and energy to be a head coach.

  • Emaw

    Reid is definitely a major upgrade, let’s just hope the deal becomes official today, remember these are the Chiefs we’re talking about. I agree with what Gary said this morning on 810 if not him then who? He is definitely the best candidate out there and has a proven track record developing QBs .

  • mukustink

    Will Reid help sure he will but the problem is in the front office and personal including talent evaluation. Reid is just putting lipstick on the pig. As long as Piloi is the GM and in charge of the draft and personal we’re screwed plain and simple. The season ticket holders should not renew their tickets until Pioli is fired. I would suggest calling the Chiefs and letting them know that you expect Pioli to be fired.

    Mother nature please postpone the rain or snow until Late Tuesday evening or Wednesday. Having new furniture delivered Tuesday and would prefer it ot be dry. Thank you mother nature for listening.

  • Emaw

    Muku, Reid wouldn’t even come here if he didn’t have total control of personnel , even if Clark does keep Pioli his role will definitely be diminished , rumor has it Reid is bringing his own .GM, as part of the deal, we shall see.

  • Gary,I,m hearing calls for a female met.to replace G.W. Please,NO TRANSVESTITES !!!

  • Supercell

    Reid to KC is a done deal. Pioli is out as GM. John Dorsey, Director of Player Personnel for Green Bay, will replace Pioli. Some say the new GM will be Tom Hecter from Cleveland, but that is a smoke screen.

  • ChiefsFan

    Looks like the high temps won’t be as cold on the 7 day, 30′s I will take it.

  • Kcchamps

    latest 18z GFS has .50-.75″ of precip for the tuesday storm and all that precip would likely be snow

    • Kcchamps

      well after looking at this, It looks like maybe .25″ of precip would be something other than snow

      “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013010318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=129″

      • mukustink

        Look how much it has changed from the earlier run. There was a map posted above from the 144 hour run. As usual will have to wait till Monday to see how it looks or at least Sunday night.

    • mukustink

      That’s what it shows now but we all know that it will change by Tuesday/Wednesday.

  • f00dl3

    Gary, I don’t mean to critique but come on here…

    First you said the jet stream was moving way north and we’d have 1″ of rain this next week, then you said the jet stream was amplifying, and now you pretty much completely took the precip out of the forecast – down to 20% (what I consider “remote possibility”) TUE/WED.

    Low confidence forecast??!

    • Exactly! I made a rather significant mistake yesterday, but not going with what I know about this pattern and going with the long range models. The GFS had this big upper low coming out at us. And, today, the ECMWF (European model) is, I believe, making the same huge mistake. In the last cycle it was a fast moving wave, and that is what the trend is on the models now. I should have gone with the LRC and not with the models, or at least had a lower confidence forecast.

      So, where does that leave us now? Could there be some snow on Tuesday as that wave zips by? Yes! But, it highly depends on the track. The 18z GFS took a perfect track for KC to have snow, but it is right now a needle in the haystack.

      Have a nice evening. I am sorry to have confused you.

  • west shawnee

    So the rain for next week isn’t going to happen now?

  • Kcchamps

    “http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_48HR.gif”

    18z GFS snow map for the Saturday snow

  • dogsinkc

    Phew, so are the 50s out of the forecast for good now, Gary? I’ve been loving the weather since Christmas and we need to keep it that way unless we want 100 by May.

  • Theo

    Several items:

    1. Even with a Green Bay GM, Chiefs won’t be above .500 for years.
    2. Andy Reid has never scored a touchdown nor made a tackle in the NFL.
    3. Wishcasters can’t make it snow Saturday nor can they make a storm suddenly appear Tuesday.
    4. A hot female meteorologist will not push 41 into the top slot in KC.

  • Emaw

    Theo , is the glass always half empty for ya? Tush , oh no you didn’t . . . . .

  • Kcchamps

    so many trolls in the blog…

  • mukustink

    Mike did you have to send your plows out with this past storm? I know you told Joe you had then on stand by. It didn’t seem like there was enough snow to really plow. Curious as to what your criteria is for plowing? Does the client set the criteria?

  • mukustink

    Rockhurst High School is going to start random drug testing of students. Hope they don’t forget their towel :).
    Go Cats!! I hope.

  • mukustink

    *new* not knew

  • McCabe58

    Lol Gary you are such a coward to not actually do anything about the trolls. Seriously stop with the fake warnings. It’s obviously not scaring them away.

  • Kcchamps

    00z NAM just came out and has some light snow for us on Saturday

  • mukustink

    Cats are holding their own so far. Hope they can keep it up for the second half.

  • mukustink

    CRAP! Looks like I spoke to soon!

  • SnowComando

    KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO:GFS has had a good
    run of picking up on open waves thus far through the fall and winter
    months.
    SPRINGFIELD MO:THE GFS IS INCONSISTENT FROM
    RUN TO RUN… AND IS MUCH FASTER AS IT REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE AND
    MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

    What…..?They haven’t a clue.

  • LittleAndy

    I read the blog and comments daily but rarely do I myself comment. Tush is rude, arrogant, and vulgar and is the one who really brings this blog down (and apparently doesn’t know the difference between a comma and apostrophe?). I love the weather and love most of the discussion that happens on this blog. I just wish he would actually contribute to the conversation rather than attack other blockers who have valuable input. What do “sluts, and transvestites” have to do with weather? You could easily offend another with that language. I don’t come here to read trash so I respectfully ask that you do not post it. Thank you.

    • RickMckc

      Totally agree. I know – “just ignore them” – but when they respond to every single comment it’s impossible. It’s like having an obnoxious dog barking the whole time you’re trying to have a conversation with someone. At some point, you either put the dog out or give up the conversation … which is what I will probably end up doing since it appears the owner doesn’t want to do anything about the yapping.

      I really do enjoy the weather talk and even a little bit of Chiefs/Royals thrown in, but the recent potty-mouth posts are too much.

  • LittleAndy

    And by blockers I mean bloggers

  • R-Dub

    Look, it would be nice if people just ignored the trolls, but that never happens on any public forum, ever. What’s needed is a moderator who deletes the obviously inappropriate posts, and also suspends or deletes the accounts behind them. It’s not complicated. Jeff Masters’ blog on wunderground does it. Lots of blogs do it. Just not this one.

  • Kcchamps

    latest GFS has mostly rain for the Tuesday storm with 1″ of precip

  • Kcchamps

    “http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_123_precip_p36.gif”

    here is the total precip of the 00z GFS

  • Kcchamps

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013010400&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=129″

    here is what the GFS is saying in terms of snowfall for the Tuesday storm. shows maybe 1-2″

  • McCabe58

    That’s what I’ve been saying all along rdub! I try to ignore them, but damn you know you still read the crap they post in hopes that one day maybe they will start taking there pills again and can post without attacking or harassing someone. < was probably inappropriate lol but whatever. Isn't bill smith the moderator? Ps muku my serious question to you is why do you have to come on here day in and day out posting the garbage that you do? You and tush(if you aren't the same person) are buddy buddy and do the exact same thing. Just chill out and stick to the weather for ONCE? I promise this will be the last time I post about the trolls lol.. Any precip will obviously be welcome on Tuesday, 1 inch of rain would be nice. Or 10" of snow would be pretty sweet too lol… Just wish we could get a good 6"+ snow storm during the daytime hours so we can actually enjoy watching it

    • The first Eight sentences you just wrote,is hypocritical garbage…You have diarrhea of the mouth…Your mood swings need to be worked on… I,ll pray for you…Have a good 1. :)

      • R-Dub

        See, there is obviously no moderator, or this post would have been deleted. And tushchaser’s account would also be long gone.

  • RickMckc

    MUKU wrote: “McCabe you seem to be the only one who gets so bent out of shape. Is it that hard to just skip those post from folks that annoy you so much? I’m serious in asking the question. I really want to know what is so hard about it?”

    There are 108 posts on this page. 25 of them are from you, 20 are from tushchaser.

    Case closed.

  • Skylar

    6z GFS only showing flurries or brigades for Saturday and its weaker with much less precipitaion then the 0z run for the storm next week.

  • Skylar

    Lol brigades? I meant virga, I guess that word isn’t in autocorrect.