Good morning bloggers,
Cloud cover moved in overnight and acted like a blanket holding temperatures in the middle to upper 20s overnight. Another band of clouds will likely move in this afternoon. And, then our attention shifts to this:
Look at what is now being forecast by most of the models for Saturday morning. This is the NAM 500 mb forecast valid at 6 AM Saturday. An upper low will be developing today over New Mexico and Texas. It is then forecast to move our way. Just looking at this level of the atmosphere I would conclude that a nice comma head of snow would develop near and around the center of this storm system as it looks really dynamic. But, it is lacking moisture. Take a look at the surface forecast from this same NAM model:
The blue dotted 534 line is the 5,340 meter thickness line showing that it would definitely be cold enough to snow if any precipitation forms. On this model run the NAM predicts not even one hundredth of an inch of precipitation anywhere close to Kansas City. The pattern at the surface is being influenced by stronger features moving across the northern plains into Canada.
The GFS model has a similar surface pattern but it does predict some light precipitation in our area:
The 06z GFS model, which was somewhat consistent from it’s earlier model runs, shows a comma head of precipitation being forecast for Saturday morning with that 5,340 meter thickness line also near the center of the upper level low. Thickness is a measure of the distance between the 1000 mb layer and the 500 mb layer. The larger the distance, the warmer that layer will be. The 540 1o00-500 mb thickness line is often considered the 50/50 rain snow changeover line. So, with this set-up we would be cold enough for any precipitation that falls would likely be in the form of snow.
After this system moves by the pattern is seemingly in rapid transition and the 06z GFS model had a much faster and more progressive pattern that what was being predicted by the models the past few days. This faster solution of next week’s storm is something we will be concentrating on today as well, as the latest model trend has some snow from this system around Tuesday. After this storm moves by the flow is forecast to amplify even more. Let’s see how the models trend today.
The weather pattern has certainly been more interesting this winter than last year. We were still over five weeks away from our first inch of snow a year ago. This more exciting and energetic pattern will continue and we suddenly have another system to track during the next 48 hours. Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather blog. Let us know if you have any questions or comments. We will go over the details of this and next weeks weather pattern on 41 Action News today and tonight.