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A Challenging Weekend Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

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The sun sets at the North Pole on the Autumnal Equinox, which happened Saturday night.  It is then twilight at the North Pole for the next two weeks before it becomes dark for months.  Total darkness happens a few weeks later in NovemberAnd, the old pattern gets wiped out and the new pattern truly begins around the first week of October.  The transition period, where something different may actually begin happening is right now. This weekend rain chance and cold front approaching is likely a transition storm, a hybrid between the old LRC and the new LRC.  However, this weekends weather pattern is still likely more related to what has happened, and not what is going to happen as the new LRC sets up.

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There are still many areas that are way below average on rainfall.  Olathe, KS is one of those locations.  Olathe is over one foot of rain below average.  KCI Airport is now over 6 inches below average.  Well, some rain is in the forecast. Last night on 41 Action News I went for a 100% chance of rain on Saturday. Now, this chance of rain does not have a lot of upper level support; it is still rather interesting how it is setting up.  Let’s take a look:

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There will be a cold front moving through by Friday afternoon. This front will stall, and then lift back north as a warm front.  As this front lifts back to the north, areas of rain will likely develop.

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Now, look at this rainfall forecast closely.  It is really just a small area that is predicted to receive rainfall, so this still makes it somewhat suspect.   Much warmer air will move in by Sunday.  The tricky parts of the forecast arrive tomorrow into Saturday.  How much rain develops will influence the temperatures on Saturday.  Some models have a weaker area of rain and the warm air surges in by Saturday evening as a result.  It is a difference between having a high in the 40s or 50s, or a jump to near 65 degrees by Saturday evening.  We will go over the latest data on 41 Action News tonight.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: A cool start to a great day. High:  75°
  • Friday:  Increasing clouds.  The wind shifting to the north with falling afternoon temperatures.  High:  65°
  • Saturday:  Cloudy with a 100% chance of rain near I-70.  Lesser chances farther south.  High:  57°
  • Sunday:  Mostly sunny and much warmer with a few clouds.  High: 80°

Have a great day!

Gary

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