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A Brief Break from the Rain and Thunderstorms

Good Saturday bloggers,

We are getting a mostly dry and nice weekend of weather as you still get nice days in an active weather pattern.

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The rain and thunderstorm chances go way up on Monday and will continue through Wednesday or Thursday.

TODAY: It will be near perfect with highs around 70° and a light wind. We are in a pattern this weekend where we will see small disturbances track in from the northwest. These disturbances will contain showers and thunderstorms. There will be one this evening across Nebraska and Iowa, but as it moves southeast the rain will likely fall apart. It may limp in early Sunday with a brief shower or T-Storm.

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SUNDAY: It will be a mostly dry day with highs 70°-75°. Now, that being said, there is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm as we track disturbances coming in from the west and northwest. Any rain and thunderstorms that form to our northwest Sunday will be weakening as they move into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. So, if we see rain Sunday, it will be mostly light and brief. That will change later Sunday night and Monday morning.

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LATER SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING: We will be watching for the potential of seeing a more organized cluster of heavy to possibly severe thunderstorms. We will be getting into juicier air and this will allow any thunderstorms that form to our northwest to survive.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: After the chance of a morning thunderstorm cluster we will be tracking a cold front. This front will be stalling Monday night. It will then waver around through Wednesday or Thursday as a series of systems track along it from the southwest USA. So, we have a chance of some thunderstorms Monday afternoon. It depends how warm it gets and that depends on what happens during the morning.

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MONDAY NIGHT: A training echo event is possible along and north of the front. Flash flooding will be a problem as some locations will see 2″ to 5″ of rain. This data has the heavy thunderstorm zone just south of KC.  We will be watching this closely.

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TUESDAY: The front will be near as a system tracks in from the southwest. This will bring more rain and thunderstorms to the area. The rain chances will end Wednesday or Thursday after a main system moves by and pushes the front south for the final time in this latest rain and thunderstorm episode.

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RAINFALL FORECAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS: 1″ to 4″ of rain is likely across much of the Plains and Midwest. A few locations could see 4″ to 7″. This is not that unusual for this time of year as we are into the wettest time of year. The problem is that the rivers are at or over flood stage and the ground is saturated. So, flash flooding and river flooding will be an issue. 36 people have died this year from flooding. Most of these deaths have occurred due to people driving around barricades. You can avoid being a flooding death statistic by following one simple rule. “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.”

5″ to 10″ of rain is possible from Texas to Tennessee. This could have big impacts on the lower Mississippi river.

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If you need to mow, this is the day. Sunday is even a good day. The ground is wet and squishy, but you may have to deal with it as it will not have enough time to dry out before the next big thunderstorms arrive. Be careful with the mower as it can slide and slip on the wet ground.

Have a great week and enjoy the dry hours!

Jeff Penner

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