Except for a few snow showers today and tomorrow, we will get a break from the wild weather through the weekend. The last two weeks have been an exciting ride. From December 1st thru February 20th at KCI we had 4.7 inches of snow. From February 21st until yesterday, it snowed 20.3 inches. Now check out on average how much snow we have received from the October til April over the last 30 years.
Average winter snowfall (Oct-Apr, 1981-2010): 18.8″
In other words, we got a season’s worth of snowfall in a week! The weather pattern has gotten more energized recently due to the Arctic Oscillation going more negative. The negative AO is forcing the jet stream further south. This shift may end up sending a fast moving system, early next week, right over KC if not a little south and west of the metro. Where it ends up will have a big impact on the types and amounts of precip we see next Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Here is the 6z GFS 500mb chart.
The upper low, at this point, is vigorous, not quite as strong as the last two storms and moving quickly through the energized northwest flow. If the storm takes this forecast track then just north and east of KC, there could be 1 to 4 inches of snow. If it ends up just a notch west of K-C then we could be in for a mini snowstorm next week. So this system needs to be watched closely.
My March Outlook
We are about to finish up February with above average precipitation. Our total precipitation, a combination of rain/sleet & snow, added up to 1.86″ for the month. The average amount of precipitation is 1.46″ This is the first time since last March we have had a month where we experienced above average precipitation. Is this the beginning of a wetter trend as we head into Spring? I think it is. Using Gary’s LRC theory (Yes, I drink the kool-aid too) I believe there are at least 5 storm systems that could affect us in March and perhaps four of these could be very wet storms. The first very wet storm is showing up for March 10th.
Some of the long range computer models have been advertising this storm for the last week, Each model run seems to consistent with the last one in location, strength and amounts of precipitation. It could end up being an early season severe weather maker in the deep south and Ohio River Valley. This storm lines up in a similar fashion to a storm that formed over the southern U-S around January 17th. Two or three other storms that could be big rain makers should appear around March 19th or 20th, March 22nd to 23rd and Easter Weekend.
Gary is off today and tomorrow, so I will try and update the blog and answer any questions. I will try and get the blog done earlier tomorrow as I am guest-hosting Kansas City Live. You should watch tomorrow at 10am!
Have a great day,