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A Break From Wild Winter Weather

Good Morning,

    Except for a few snow showers today and tomorrow, we will get a break from the wild weather through the weekend.  The last two weeks have been an exciting ride.  From December 1st thru February 20th at KCI we had 4.7 inches of snow.   From February 21st until yesterday, it snowed 20.3 inches.  Now check out on average how much snow we have received from the October til April over the last 30 years.       

                                      Average winter snowfall (Oct-Apr, 1981-2010): 18.8″

 
      
In other words, we got a season’s worth of snowfall in a week!  The weather pattern has gotten more energized recently due to the Arctic Oscillation going more negative.   The negative AO is forcing the jet stream further south. This shift may end up sending a fast moving system, early next week, right over KC if not a little south and west of the metro.  Where it ends up will have a big impact on the types and amounts of precip we see next Monday night and Tuesday morning.

         Here is the 6z GFS 500mb chart. 

Tuesday Morning 500mb 2

    The upper low, at this point, is vigorous, not quite as strong as the last two storms and moving quickly through the energized northwest flow.   If the storm takes this forecast track then just north and east of KC, there could be 1 to 4 inches of snow.  If it ends up just a notch west of K-C then we could be in for a mini snowstorm next week.  So this system needs to be watched closely. 

                             My March Outlook

     We are about to finish up February with above average precipitation.  Our total precipitation, a combination of rain/sleet & snow, added up to 1.86″ for the month.  The average amount of precipitation is 1.46″  This is the first time since last March we have had a month where we experienced above average precipitation.  Is this the beginning of a wetter trend as we head into Spring?  I think it is.  Using Gary’s LRC theory (Yes, I drink the kool-aid too) I believe there are at least 5 storm systems that could affect us in March and perhaps four of these could be very wet storms.  The first very wet storm is showing up for March 10th.

     March 10th Wet Storm 2         Some of the long range computer models have been advertising this storm for the last week,  Each model run seems to consistent with the last one in location, strength and amounts of precipitation.   It could end up being an early season severe weather maker in the deep south and Ohio River Valley.  This storm lines up in a similar fashion to a storm that formed over the southern U-S around January 17th.   Two or three other storms that could be big rain makers should appear around March 19th or 20th, March 22nd to 23rd and Easter Weekend. 

       Gary is off today and tomorrow, so I will try and update the blog and answer any questions.  I will try and get the blog done earlier tomorrow as I am guest-hosting Kansas City Live.  You should watch tomorrow at 10am!  

Have a great day,

Brett

 

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32 comments to A Break From Wild Winter Weather

  • j-ox

    How about Apr-Oct long-ranger? A lot to ask, but hey…!

  • Looks like that acorn theory works!

  • mgsports

    You did a good job on the Blog and maybe concentrate and getting 41.3 add so Weather Plus can move their when COZI TV goes live here.
    The Storm next week needs to be located in Minnesota so we get the Warmer Temps meaning Severe Weather and who’s leaving in the Mornings. Also maybe you can guest star on the Daily Buzz Show that’s in Orlando that we don’t get here or have your own Talk Show.

  • Please one more snowstorm!!! I need one more b4 spring, I hope spring gets delayed!!!

  • yewtrees

    The warm temps are showing up in the long range forecast, some 50s and even 60s. Spring is just around the corner!!

  • blue8091

    So, if I’m understanding things, the hot spots that were located at the upper NE and upper NMW and then again to the NW, when the AO becomes negative it pushes the jet stream south and so perhaps some of the weather that was missing us, has a chance of hitting us or perhaps just a better shot for OH, IN, IL, IA, NE and northern parts of MO…not quite this far? The more into the negative, the further south it goes? It’s a huge relief that perhaps we have a chance of busting out of the drought.

    Wishing the snow was being busted off the sidewalks – massive snow piled everywhere and the only place to walk the pooch is down the street..which is dangerous and more narrow than ususal.

    Thanks for the informative post Brett – also glad to hear Gary is taking a few days off – not that you couldn’t use a good rest too!

  • yewtrees

    After all the snowstorms in the past few weeks, Kansas City is still listed in a severe drought as of Feb. 26, 2013.

    “http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/”

    “http://www.kansascity.com/2013/02/27/4090668/enough-snow-to-nick-the-drought.html”

  • HeatMiser

    So of these 4-5 storm you are predicting for March, how many are you predicting to be snowstorm and how many are you predicting to be rainstorms?

  • HeatMiser

    Oh, and can you define “mini snowstorm”? Does that mean potentially heavy snow but it wont’s last a long as a normal snowstorm? What period of time and what range in inches of snowfall might that entail?

  • PILOT MISER

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384″

    Continues a track towards KC. Bares watching to see how it tracks.

  • snowplowman

    For those of us in Kansas, Q and Rocky should go down in history as the “Blizzard of Oz”

  • f00dl3

    Why is it that every February-March our precipitation patterns change? I realize the upper level pattern follows the LRC and it sets up around October, but I’ve also noticed that the moisture available to these storms undergoes a MAJOR change every February-March. It this a second surface cycle that we do not understand yet?

  • bob osoborne

    So Gary’s winter forecast snow totals was wrong again this year as well.

  • StormyWX

    Oh wow nice! A blog from Brett. We don’t see those very often. I enjoy it when he blogs, and this blog in and of itself was a nice one.

  • Freeze Miser

    What to do, what to do. Come on Heat Miser…you have my permission to bring on the thunderstorms.

  • PILOT MISER

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022818&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=360″

    Could old man winter have another round left? Interesting.

  • Emaw

    Old man winter can bite me! He’s done, it’s not going to do Jack Squat next week but warm up !

  • olathe-snowkid

    Shut up emaw

    • Weatherman Kumke

      We all know that Olathe-Snowkid has a mangina. JACK SQUAT NEXT WEEK. Bring on Severe Weather Season.

      My winter prediction from eariler this year was this

      24 inches of snow
      Below average temps
      above average precip
      1 minor icing event
      2 5+ inch snow events.

      Sucks to suck.

      • tushchaser1

        You are amazing. Probably the greatest weather forecaster the KC Metro has ever seen. Did the superintendent of the Olathe School District call you before cancelling school? Does the superintendent call you before they do anything? I know you are very important, even if that importance is in your own mind.

        Keep up the good work, glad you learned something while interning at NBC Action Weather Studios.

        Now back to regularly scheduled programming.

        • Weatherman Kumke

          Never interned here. Never will. But I do know who the 4th meteorologist is here at KSHB.

          • tushchaser1

            You must know, since you are such good friends with the met at KMBC, and he has probably told you. I am also surprised you aren’t spending more time with Chris Hansen since you “worked” with him to catch people breaking the law.

            You are absolutely legendary. Absolutely amazing. I am lucky to have gotten to know you over the last 3+ years on the blog…yep…

  • NO!! More Go AWAY Spring!
    There’s 9 months 2 days 6 hrs and 21 minutes until Winter ’13-’14 begins (Dec. 1st 12am)!!!!

  • themonkeysays

    It feels like we might be have started the “winter of 2010-2011″ part of the cycle where it’s just going to keep on snowing until nobody cares anymore.