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A 200+ Day Forecast For A Hurricane In The Gulf Of Mexico

Good morning bloggers,

A major storm system just produced enough rain across Southern California to create major mudslides, flooding, and a disaster. 13 people were killed as one of the mudslides destroyed homes northwest of Los Angeles.  While this horrible storm tracks east into the plains, it is caught in the cycling weather pattern that is right on schedule according to the LRC.  When the pattern set up in October, a hurricane was caught at the beginning, around day 1 of this years LRC on October 7th. This was hurricane Nate.  This part of the pattern is likely going to produce a hurricane in future cycles.  Here is a tweet I made yesterday afternoon in preparation for the presentation I will be making today at the American Meteorological Society’s conference in Austin, TX:

Screen Shot 2018-01-09 at 6.08.55 PM

While Kansas City braces for yet another miss, today we will look at the forecast that we made yesterday for a hurricane to likely be threatening the United States around September 1st by using this year’s LRC; this year’s 47-day cycle. Ten days ago we discussed how this part of the pattern may very well finally end the snowflake contest, and there is a chance between now and the end of the weekend, but the odds still seem low.  This weather pattern continues to produce miss after miss after miss.

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There may be a band of heavy snow developing over central Kansas and then tracking northeast in a rather thin strip from southeastern Nebraska, into Iowa, and northeast to Lake Superior.  Then, the storm reorganizes and produces a major snowstorm from parts of Tennessee into western New York. This is likely going to be another miss for KC. Maybe, just maybe, a little dusting of snow or a mixture of precipitation will zip by Thursday.  There are a couple of systems that try to move in from the northwest Friday and over the weekend, but these are suspect as well.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Cloudy and mild. South winds gusting to 25 or 30 mph. It will be dry with a high of 54°.
  • Tonight:  Cloudy and windy.  There is a 90% chance of some rain, and a potential for a few thunderstorms between 2 AM and 7 AM.  Low:  45°
  • Thursday: Cloudy and turning colder. The wind shifting to the northwest. A band of rain, sleet, and snow is likely going to track fairly quickly across the area. There may be some quick and very low accumulation of less than 1/2″ of any winter combination of precipitation.  Temperatures falling into the teens during the afternoon

So, as we can see, it is likely going to be a rather interesting and exciting next 24 hours.  After this system zips by, we have a chance of one or two systems coming in from the northwest, but I am not too bullish on these yet. Okay, let’s look ahead 200+ days.

Forecasting A Likely Hurricane Using The LRC

As shown in the first map of this blog, we are predicting a hurricane within a few days of September 1st to be affecting, most likely somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida west coast.  This part of the pattern produce Hurricane Nate on October 7th and 8th.  If you use the average 47-day cycle length, this comes out to 235, 282, and 329 days from now, or near the end of May, mid-July and late August into early September.  What we have found out is that hurricane season actually begins in October and November; it then goes dormant and re-emerges in June.  If there is an early tropical storm, then this is a huge indicator of an active hurricane season ahead.  So, we will be looking for this early indicator for this forecast around July 16th. Last year it was Tropical Storm Cindy that was the early indicator for the forecast of Hurricane Harvey that Weather2020 made 55 days before.  Go back and look at the June 27th Eclipse Forecast blog entry to see that bold prediction that verified. The chance that a hurricane hits somewhere from the Florida Panhandle west to New Orleans is around 25% for any given year, so we are forecasting way above the average for any given year.

I am presenting this today at the conference. My presentation is stressing how to write an effective and successful blog. Thank you so much for posting your incredible comments last week. I am using a few of them near the end of the talk. Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC. Go to the blog on Weather2020, Weather2020 Blog and join in the conversation.

Gary

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1 comment to A 200+ Day Forecast For A Hurricane In The Gulf Of Mexico

  • Jim Satterfield

    When you say in the blog that Thursday’s system is most likely be another miss for Kansas City but the daily forecast shows a 90% chance of precipitation I’m curious as to that large a difference in what’s being written.