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April 24th Thoughts On Rain Potential In The Next Two Weeks

Good morning bloggers,

Well, it’s April 24th!  I am not sure how you feel when you say your birthdate out loud, but is just feel special.  It can also be overwhelming.   For my birthday, all I want is an exciting weather pattern, and boy have we had one in this year’s cycling weather pattern.  I know it has dried out, as shown yesterday in this last cycle. We had only average rainfall in the past 50 days or so.  Well take a look at this:

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The first forecast is the GFS, the second the GFS FV3, and the third one is the European model.  In the next ten days to two weeks just about every model has 2″ to 10″ of rain in our area.  The part of the pattern that produced the bomb cyclone will cycle through in the next seven days, early next week, and the pressure will be on Mother Nature to come through.

The weather will be calm between now and then.  I am on my way to a breakfast fundraiser right now, and I will check in later.  Have a great day, and thank you in advance for any birthday wishes. Here is a picture that was tweeted out this morning:

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Have a great day.

Gary

A Series Of Five Storm Systems In The Next Two Weeks

Good morning bloggers,

A series of storm systems will begin targeting the plains states within the next week. This will bring an increasing chance of severe thunderstorms, and a chance of flooding rains, and even some late season snow farther north.

1The first “BOMB CYCLONE” within this years LRC happened on March 12th.  If you remember, it was a powerful surface low that set records for the lowest pressure ever over parts of Kansas.  The part of the weather pattern that produced the conditions for that intense storm will be cycling back through within the next seven days or so. There is order to the chaos and it is described by the LRC, which is the centerpiece of a complex atmospheric puzzle.  The LRC predicted last weeks tornado outbreaks perfectly, in fact so perfectly that Jeremy Nelson, who used to work with us at KSHB-TV, predicted that April 19th there would be a tornado near Savannah, GA, as there had been in most of the previous four LRC cycles.  And, his prediction was spot on and down to the county, and the forecast was made 45 days before April 19th on March 5th.

There has been some concern from a few of our bloggers on how it seems to have dried out a bit.  Let’s take a look at the numbers:

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For the year, Kansas City is over one inch of water above average, which includes melted down snow.  If you go back to the beginning of this years LRC around October 5, 2018, Kansas City is 10.6″ of water above average.  Here are the numbers for the previous four cycles:

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If you look at just the last cycle, we have come back down to earth and we actually had a cycle that came in exactly on average.  In our spring forecast, we predict that we will have a return to above average rainfall between now and around the first day of summer, which is around 10″ of rain. We are predicting around 15″ or more in this next two months.

There is a good chance of rain today:

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There is an upper level disturbance over northwest Texas. This will likely hold together long enough to spread rain into the KC metro area before the day is over. The diurnal range will be at the most six degrees, and it is currently 52° to 54° early this morning, so the high will likely stay below 60° today.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Cloudy and much cooler. There is a 90% chance of light rain later today. High:  58°
  • Tonight:  Cloudy with a 90% chance of light rain.  Total rainfall amounts between 0.05″ and 0.35″ likely. Low:  50°
  • Wednesday:  Cloudy with a few lingering showers possible during the morning.  High:  66°
  • Next Ten Days:   Increasing chances for heavy thunderstorms from Saturday through next Wednesday.  2″ to 5″ of rain possible.

Today is a special day:

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Today, I am quite honored to accept this award at Johnson County Community College.  I will be presenting about my career, how I got started, and discuss the LRC, and more.  Hopefully it will go over well for today’s audience.

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  I will check back in after today’s event.  Join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog by clicking here:

Gary

A nice start to the week

Good morning bloggers,

There were thunderstorms approaching KC before sunrise, and then they fell apart.  These clouds were left behind, and they were close to becoming new thunderstorms. Instead, they were just some pretty clouds that Sunny The Weather Dog posed for in this picture.  These are convective clouds that are called altocumulus clouds.  Since there were little showers being generated by these, I would classify these as “alto cumulonimbus” clouds.  The bases are around 10,000 feet up.

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It is a rather quiet and nice start to the week.  There are small chances of rain this week with one of those chances on Tuesday.  There will be some rain heading our way early Tuesday morning.

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This map above shows an area of rain and thunderstorms tracking across Oklahoma early Tuesday morning.   This will be weakening and moving northeast, and it may make it all the way to KC before falling apart.  But, like this morning, it may end up being just an area of clouds.

Today’s Severe Weather Risk:

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There will be Texas severe weather risks this week. We are expecting more significant risks next week.  For now, it is pretty quiet.

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today:  Mostly sunny after a few pretty morning clouds.  South winds 10-20 mph.  High:  74°
  • Tonight:  Partly cloudy. Low: 49°
  • Tuesday:  Mostly cloudy during the morning with a 30% chance of rain.  Light winds.  High:  61°

Thank you for spending a few minutes of your day. Click on the blog over on Weather2020 to join in the conversation. Have a great start to the week.

Gary

A Two Part Storm System

Happy Easter bloggers,

It was a beautiful sunrise here in KC for Easter 2019. Today will be a warm day, but it will become quite windy with south wind gusts 40-45 mph.

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We are tracking a two part storm system that will affect our weather Monday through Wednesday.

TODAY: It will be partly to mostly sunny, windy and warm with highs around 80°. The wind will be gusting to 40-45 mph from the south. The first part of the next storm system will be moving into Nebraska later today. Southwest Kansas will see highs around 90°, but with a lack of moisture we do not expect severe weather out there today.

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MONDAY MORNING: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially for northern Missouri. Lows will not drop much below 65° as clouds and humidity increase. The wind will be from the south down to 10-25 mph.

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MONDAY AFTERNOON: It will be mostly cloudy with highs 70°-75°. If the clouds stay thick, then highs will stay 65°-70°, not rising much from the morning lows. A cold front will drift through during the evening with little rain as we will be in between part one that is tracking to the western Great Lakes and part two that is organizing in the southern Plains.

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TUESDAY MORNING: A large area of rain and thunderstorms will be located across Oklahoma and southern Kansas as the second part of the storm system drifts northeast. We will be on the northern edge with lows in the 50s.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The second part will move into our area and weaken. This means it will be a cloudy day with scattered showers. Highs will be in the 50s. If this part holds together more, we could see a more widespread and heavier rain. This second part may linger into Wednesday as a main storm tracks across the southern Plains. The main storm could be considered a third part.

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RAINFALL FORECAST MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: 2″ to 5″ of rain is likely across Oklahoma and Texas as the main storm targets those locations.

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We have the chance to see .25″ to .50″ with some locations seeing close to 1″. If you need to get fertilizer down this would be enough rain to wash it in. However, there is no guarantee we see this much rain as later tonight the thunderstorms look scattered and the system on Tuesday could weaken faster.  If we miss the rain this time, our next chances will be in about a week.

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Have a Happy Easter and a great week ahead.

Jeff Penner

Happy Easter and Passover

Good Saturday bloggers,

Last year it snowed on Easter Sunday. That will not be the case this year as we are looking at some great weather. This will be a good day to head out to Nebraska Furniture Mart for Severe Weather Awareness Day.

You can meet the weather team, myself, Gary, Lindsey and Gerard. We will have unique presentations and Gerard will take you through Storm Tracker. Sunny the weather dog will be out there and you can get a copy of her book, “It’s a Sunny Life.” We hope to see you out there.

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Now, let’s go through the forecast. We are in for some great weather this weekend which will be followed by a two part, weak storm system.

The conditions last night were perfect for colder air to settle into the low areas. You can see the creeks, streams and low areas on this map highlighted by the colder colors. I have never seen this on a map like this.

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SATURDAY: It will be near perfect with highs in the low to mid 70s along with a south breeze at 10-15 mph.

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EASTER SUNDAY (SUNRISE: 6:34 AM): It will be dry and not as cold as Saturday with temperatures in the 50s. It will be a bit breezy from the south at 10-20 mph.

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EASTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON: It will be windy and warm with more clouds. Highs will be around 80°.

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MONDAY MORNING: The first part of our next system may bring a few showers and thunderstorms. Nebraska and Iowa will see most of the rain with this first part. Lows will be in the 60s and the humidity will be up. Monday afternoon will be mostly cloudy with highs 65°-75°.

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TUESDAY MORNING: The second part of the storm system will be producing a nice area of rain and thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma to southeast Kansas. This area of rain will track northeast through the day and weaken.

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TUESDAY AFTERNOON: The rain will be moving off to the northeast. It will be mostly cloudy and cooler with highs around 60.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: This system will bring around .25″ to .50″ of rain. It will be weakening as it tracks northeast, so amounts may be less than shown. This is the one main rain chance the next five days.

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Have a great Easter/Passover weekend.

Jeff Penner

Great Weekend Forecast

Good morning bloggers,

90It is Passover/Easter weekend.  The weather looks fantastic and it is a great chance for you to meet our weather team.  We will be out at the Nebraska Furniture Mart at 11 AM with Sunny The Weather Dog.  Gerard is bringing Storm Tracker. Our entire weather team will be there including Lindsey Anderson, Jeff Penner, Gerard Jebaily, Sunny The Weather Dog, and of course I will be there. We will discuss storm chasing, any weather questions you may have, and we will have my book “It’s A Sunny Life” available for $20 and we will sign it.  We hope to see you there.

The weather pattern is producing a major eastern storm today with a severe weather risk approaching the southeast and mid-Atlantic coastline. It will move offshore later today. Kansas City is on the back side of this storm:

1 PM Friday:

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1 PM Saturday:

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7 PM Easter Sunday:

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It will be a dry weekend. We will look at the set ups for next week in the next few days!  Have a great day!  And, thank you for sharing in this weather experience featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary

The LRC Produces For The Fifth Time

Good morning bloggers,

What we experienced last night was pretty fascinating to watch unfold.  I was on the air at 6 PM explaining what would happen, and then it followed what I expected to develop.  On the air I explained, “the cold front will pass through Kansas City, and then it will interact with a storm aloft moving our way from the southwest. Thunderstorms will develop and then expand north forming into a complex of rain and thunderstorms.  The rain may extend to just north of I-70 with 2 to 3 inches of rain possible farther south”.  It is exactly what happened. How did I know?  The LRC!

Midnight Radar (November 18, 2019):

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Look at the little cure of thunderstorms and rain south of Wichita, KS.  That is the little upper level low that ended up perfectly placed to create this wide band of heavy rain and thunderstorms. And, this looked strikingly similar to the snow pattern on January 12th, and November 25th.  As Gary England said 10 years ago, “Lezak, I see it, It’s The Same But Different”.

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The dip in the upper flow last night at 1 AM shown on the Cycle 5 map is directly related to the upper level disturbance that created the conditions for the blizzard in November, the January 12th snowstorm, and all previous cycles of this years pattern.

So, what is next?  Remember Michael?  Major Hurricane Michael?  In October Michael moved inland and produced a few tornadoes across the deep south into the southeast coastal region around Savannah, GA.  This part of the pattern has produced tornadoes and severe weather in each LRC Cycle near eastern Georgia and the southeast.  Here is a look at the forecast for 1 PM tomorrow:

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And, this is no coincidence!  Take a look at the risks the next two days, with Savannah right smack down the middle of the risk tomorrow. Let’s see what happens:

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For Kansas City, this storm is not done yet.  A disturbance will be intensifying right overhead later this afternoon and evening. There is a chance of a few convective showers, maybe even a thunderstorm later today.  I have the day off, so I will be keeping track of all of this with you.

Saturday is our Severe Weather Day at the Nebraska Furniture Mart. We hope to see you out there around 11 AM. We will be there from 11 AM to 1 PM. Meet our Weather Team, Storm Tracker, and Sunny The Weather Dog!

Have a great day!

Gary

KC Is On The Edge Of This Storm

Good morning bloggers,

There is a large risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of the plains, and Kansas City is on the northern edge of this risk.  An upper level storm is forecast to be over western Texas by late this afternoon.  This map below shows the flow aloft around 18,000 feet above us. Look at the closed circle near Lubbock, TX:

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The closed circle is showing where the upper level storm is located. If that would bodily come out into the plains, then a very heavy and wide spread rain event would happen near Kansas City.  The models, however are not holding this system together, and it is predicted to stretch out and this may limit the extent of the area of rain and thunderstorms, and even more likely limit the northern extension of the area of rain. This northern edge of the storm is likely going to be near Kansas City, which makes our weather forecast difficult today.

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I plotted the map below:

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The position of this surface front will be one of the most important factors for where the rain will fall tonight.  If that front is a bit faster, then Kansas City will be left high and dry tonight as the thunderstorms will be developing near the front and growing as they gradually shift south and east.  If the front is a bit farther north than this position, the KC could have 3″ of rain.  3″ of rain is likely near where the front is located at 8:30 PM. This will be the most important parameter of this storm that we will be monitoring closely. When I am on at 5 and 6 PM tonight we should be able to narrow down where the heavy rain will hit, and where it will miss.

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The NAM model last night had this prediction, which did have KC in the thunderstorms, with the northern edge rather close.  There is a risk of severe thunderstorms, especially when the thunderstorms first form. Large hail is possible in that first two hours of development, and then it will transition to a heavy rain event near that front. Farther south the risk is a bit higher.

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This is a three day severe weather risk storm, as you can see the risks shifting east over the next two days:

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Kansas City Weather Timeline:

Today:  Periods of clouds with a high near 78°.  South winds 10-25 mph.  The chance of rain is zero before 4 PM, and then there is an increasing chance of evening thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are likely south of I-70 between 5 PM and 10 PM with some severe weather possible.  The chance is lower north of I-70.  1/2″ to 3″ of rain are possible.

Have a great day!

Gary

A Moisture Tongue

Good morning bloggers,

Moisture is surging north from the Gulf of Mexico and it is forming into what meteorologists named “the moisture tongue” many years ago.  The dew points can appear to be in the shape of a tongue, as you can imagine below:

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This is the forecast dew point profile valid tomorrow morning, and then the map below shows how the dewpoints increase with 70°+ dewpoints forecast to surge to near the Red River Valley alone the Texas/Oklahoma border by Wednesday afternoon and evening. This map below shows the surface forecast and I plotted the fronts on there.  Thunderstorms are most likely going to be generated near and just east of these frontal boundaries.

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The Storm Prediction Center has placed this risk out for Wednesday and Wednesday night, and you can see how it fits the pattern I plotted above.

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From the SPC:

A moist air mass will already be in place across the region beneath
   a well-developed EML. Resultant capping should preclude thunderstorm
   development across the region until the afternoon when the
   combination of daytime heating, large-scale ascent, boundary-layer
   mixing and surface convergence act to overcome the convective
   inhibition. Narrowing down the best location for initial development
   is difficult given the prevalence of surface boundaries. Initiation
   is also possible within the open warm sector. Once convective
   initiation occurs, quick and strong updraft development is
   anticipated, with the potential for very large hail (i.e. greater
   than 2" in diameter). Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected
   into the evening as large-scale ascent strengthens and the entire
   system shifts eastward. 

   Primary severe threat is large hail. A tornado threat exists, but
   weakness in the flow between 850 and 700 mb (resulting from the
   preceding shortwave trough and overall positive tilt of the upper
   trough) cast some doubt towards the robustness of low-level
   mesocyclone organization. Damaging wind gusts are also likely,
   particularly later in the period as a convective line organizes
   along the front.

This storm fits the “blizzard part of the LRC” perfectly. And, it is right on schedule and predicted to arrive this week.  This storm is also directly related to the beginning of this years pattern in October; the january 12th nearly one foot snowstorm in KC (11 inches fell in Olathe).  This storm has produced significant precipitation in all four previous cycles.  The fifth LRC cycle begins Wednesday night into Thursday.

Let’s see how this sets up.  I have the rest of the day off, after my radio hit on Sports Radio 810 WHB in a few minutes.  Have a great day, and go over to the Weather2020 blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

Looking Into The Mid-Week Storm

Good morning bloggers

Severe weather season is now underway and we just had an active two days. Take a look at the severe weather reports from Saturday and Sunday:

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There were 33 tornado reports Saturday and then 2 yesterday with mostly wind damage reports on Sunday.  Another storm is approaching and there will be surge of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico:

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60°+ dew points are going to surge into eastern and central Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday. The main surface storm is more likely going to form over western Oklahoma with a dry line moving out over southwestern Oklahoma. This will lead to a higher severe weather risk south of KC.  For Kansas City, thunderstorms are likely in this set up with a slight risk of severe weather, and again the main risk will more likely be farther south.  Let’s see how the models trend today. Here is the look from the SPC:

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From The SPC:  As low-level moisture spreads gradually northward on southerly flow
   ahead of the advancing storm system, steep lapse rates associated
   with eastward advection of an elevated mixed layer will result in
   development of a moderately unstable but capped warm sector.  

   Capping should hinder convective development -- particularly over
   the southern Plains -- until late afternoon, but expect storms to
   eventually develop along the cold front, and southward along an
   eastward-mixing dryline as ascent increases in advance of the
   strengthening upper system.

   With flow aloft forecast to gradually strengthen as the trough
   advances, shear sufficient for supercells will reside across much of
   the area by afternoon.  As such, developing storms will likely
   become quickly severe given the degree of CAPE expected, with very
   large hail likely to be the primary severe risk.  Greatest risk for
   the largest hail appears to exist across the southern Plains, near
   the axis of steepest lapse rates associated with the elevated mixed
   layer advecting northeastward from northern Mexico/New Mexico. 
   Damaging wind gusts will also be possible locally, and a tornado or
   two cannot be ruled out.  Convection will continue overnight --
   spreading eastward toward the Mississippi River, but severe risk
   should gradually diminish overnight.

Expect a big warm up the next two days.  We will narrow in on these risks later today into Tuesday,  Have a great day and thank you for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.

Gary