4th of July Weekend Forecast Update

Good Saturday bloggers,

The 4th of July weekend is here and it is starting great, but we simply cannot keep rain out of the forecast through Tuesday.  Before we get to the forecast, it is July 1st, or better known as “June Statistics Day!”

The month was drier than average on the 28th, then we had a series of deluges that brought the month, officially, to 1.20″ above average.  Some locations across northern Missouri received 6″ to 10″ of rain making streams, rivers and creeks quite swollen, so this break in the rain is much needed.


Now, let’s get to the complex holiday weekend forecast.  We will go day by day.

TODAY: The weather will be spectacular as we have a surface high pressure in control.  Remember, wind blows clockwise and away from high pressure as the air sinks.  So, we get some great weather and with a light west to northwest breeze the humidity will be a bit in check with highs in the low to mid 80s.


SUNDAY MORNING: The surface high pressure will remain in control, so it will be dry with lows in the 60s.  A few showers and thunderstorms will be well northwest, west and south.


SUNDAY AFTERNOON: This will be, in general, a nice day with highs in the 80s as the humidity increases.  There will be a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the south, possibly impacting the lake of the Ozarks.  A few of those downpours may try to creep north to I-70 later in the day.  There will also be some thunderstorms along I-80.


Then for Monday and Tuesday we have some issues as a series of disturbances track in from the Rockies.  One of them will evolve into a small storm system, impacting the 4th of July.  This is the upper level flow for Tuesday and you can see a small upper low in Iowa.  This is going to create areas of rain and thunderstorms to all locations.  Now, this being said, it will not make for all day rains and it still could be nice for evening fireworks.  It is all going to depend on the track and speed of the upper low.


Here is the latest data for Monday and Tuesday.

MONDAY MORNING: A zone of rain and thunderstorms will be set up from Nebraska to the Tennessee Valley.  There is a good chance of rain in our area at this time, especially south and west.  Severe weather will be a minimal issue.


MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: This data has a new flare up of thunderstorms, however, the best rain chance for Monday is during the morning.  Severe weather will be a minimal issue at this time as well.


4TH OF JULY MORNING: This is the time for the best chance of heavy thunderstorms as the upper low gets close.  We do not expect much severe weather, but flooding may be an issue. This cluster of heavy downpours will exit by afternoon.


4TH OF JULY EVENING: The big question is….Will new thunderstorms form? There is a chance as the upper low may be in Iowa.  If the upper low is farther southwest, then we will have an increased chance for a fireworks washout.  If the low is more progressive and farther east, then we will likely be in good shape.  The current data is neither here nor there, so we will just have to keep updating this as we get closer.


Our Tuesday forecast for now, is going to be optimistic for fireworks time with a 60% chance of thunderstorms during the day, dropping to 20% during the evening.  Again, this is not set in stone.


Also, even without all day rain Monday and Tuesday it is not going to be very good for the pool or lake.

There is also a DRUNK DRIVING WATCH in effect in memory of Nathan McDuffy and all those who have lost their lives or got injured in drunk driving accidents.  Please DO NOT drink and drive, call a cab or Uber.

Have a happy and safe holiday weekend.



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