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A Very Cold Start To November & A Chance Of Saturday Night Snow

Good morning bloggers,

The National Weather Service Tweeted this out yesterday, “There have only been 3 times in KC’s 131-year history that we have had 3 measurable snow events by the 12th of November.  1898, 1992 and 2018!”.   How much snow fell in the other two winters before now?  I just checked and 38.8″ fell in the 1898-1899 winter, and 34.4″ of snow fell in the 1992-1993 winter season.  In looking and remembering the winter season of 1992-1993, my first year in KC, there was one very big storm around November 25th that year and it looked like it was going to produce a record breaking snow in KC, and it didn’t quite do it here as we were left with just an inch or so. It did produce a big snow over southwest Kansas, however.  Let’s be on the lookout for a chance of a late November storm this year.  The St. Louis area has already had a 5 to 10 inch snowfall.  For Kansas City we have gone almost five years since we even had 3″ in one storm.  This streak will end this year.

This weekend:

gfs_asnow24_us_6

Some of the models have a strip of snow forming near KC Saturday evening.  There will be a band of thick moisture moving across our area tomorrow evening into Sunday morning. There is some weak rising motion forecast to develop and this may be strong enough to produce a thin band of snow.  If it is a bit stronger, then 1″ to 2″ could accumulate in this small area.  If it is just a bit weaker on the lifting, then it will just be a band of thick clouds. We have had a history of these already this season, so I lean slightly in the direction of there being a band of snow developing and making it to KC.  I had a 30% chance on my weathercast last night, and I will wait on today’s data before upping the chance a bit, or taking it out.

A Very Cold Start To November:

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Screen Shot 2018-11-16 at 7.13.04 AM

As you can see above, we are now 11.8° below average during the first half of November.  We are predicting a colder winter season ahead. Now let’s see if we will break that streak of no 3″ snowstorms before Christmas.  Here is the winter forecast temperature anomalies:

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Have a great day. Thank you for sharing in this weather experience. Have a great weekend. We will be monitoring any snow development closely on Saturday.  Join in the conversation on the Weather2020 blog!

Gary

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