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Saturday Evening Updated Snowfall Forecast

Good evening bloggers,

Here we go again.  For most of us that love snow, and love to track it, let’s admit it. Until it begins falling, you wonder if it is really going to happen.  After the past four winters, where we had 14.1″, 7.7″, 5.9″, and 4.9″, it has been hard to enjoy the ride of winter.  Many of us love winter as our favorite season for one reason………these snow chances. And, this winter has not disappointed us. Again, however, now please admit it, I know you are shaking your head yes; there are many times even in the blizzard on November 25th, and the big January 12th snowstorm, not to mention just about every one of them, there are moments when you look at radar and think, “oh no, it’s falling apart. It’s going to miss us?”.  Well, this season, then a few minutes to hours later shook you out of that first stage of tracking the radar as a storm approaches, and then it came through. This is what this year’s LRC is all about. Kansas City has actually been in the right spot. Finally. Well, it doesn’t cure us from doing it again. The data came out, and the amounts came down. This is why I have been trying very hard to help you with your expectations on this storm. It is a fast mover, and it is still targeting our area. We may end up with just 1 or 2″, and more likely 3″ or so. Keep this amount in perspective when you compare it to the past four winters.

Okay, I am not sure I even made sense. I am trying to help all of you with the best weather forecast, the most consistent weather forecast. I did not issue a Winter Storm Watch a couple of days ago, and I think that happened in response to potential snow ratios or something. This storm has not budged from how it has looked to me. There is a main disturbance with waves of energy spinning around it as you can see below on the 2 AM map.  Those orange areas show vorticity, and when it increases along one of those black lines, the constant height lines, then it is called PVA, or Positive Vorticity Advection. This is pretty strong on the latest NAM model.  This PVA causes lifting, or rising motion, and thus if there is enough moisture, snow:

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Counter acting the PVA is cold advection. If the cold air is blasting in strong enough, it causes the air to sink. So, the PVA is balanced by the Cold Air Advection. Does this make sense to you?  On this next map, it is important that we maintain an easterly component to the wind, this implies some warm advection or neutral advection is happening, and thus the PVA can dominate and our large area of snow will form:

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In may analysis, also fo 4:30 PM, I decided on this snowfall forecast. And, this is consistent with what we have been sharing you on the blog the entire time.  We are forecasting 2-3 inches north metro and 3-4 inch south metro. We still have to watch for that middle heavy band that will form, IF that vort max is just a bit stronger and holds together long enough.  If not, these amounts could be 1″ lower. If it does, these amounts could be 1″ higher.

Snow Forecasts

So, here we are. It likely won’t spread in until around 2 or 3 AM. I am going to get some sleep form 8:30 PM to 1 AM, as I LOVE SNOW.  How about you?  The wind will pick up during the morning too, so if there is 2 to 4 inches across the city, there may be 6″ to 1 foot drifts.  Let’s have some fun with this, be careful, and we will look ahead as this active winter weather pattern is not calming down. It is March Madness as March is coming in like a LION.  Have a great day!  Go over to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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