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4 PM update

Good evening bloggers,

I have been very busy trying to figure this unusual storm out. Here is a link you may find interesting:

 

The latest GFS had some lower precipitation totals, but other fields on that model convince me that those totals are a bit low.  We are continuing with our 5 to 10 inch forecast. When I show you the Powercast I will pause and try to explain what sleet may do to our totals. If there is no sleet, then the amounts could go into those higher ranges.

I will write up a new blog by 8:30 PM this evening. There is a Winter Storm Warning, and my time-line from the earlier blog is still valid.

How much snow do you think will fall?

Gary

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107 comments to 4 PM update

  • sedsinkc

    fwiw, Tom Skilling out of Chicago recently tweeted his RPM model snowfall forecast totals which included 11.8 inches for Kansas City.

  • Major Dryslot

    I have regrouped my forces and I am parking right over KC!

  • Kole Christian

    Kcchamps
    January 30, 2011 at 9:16 PM
    “http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_66HR.gif”

    latest NAM snow map shows 16-18″ for the metro

    those were the days, hard to believe that was only a year and a month ago.

    everyone that copy and past is from 2011

  • Kole Christian

    MAJOR GENERAL DRYSLOT!

    SNOWBALL IS REPORTING FOR DUTY!!!

  • Kole Christian

    The previous record before yesterday’s blog was 314 set on January 30th, 2011. The current record which was set yesterday is 344.

  • FreundlyTrojan

    Gary- why on the radar map does it currently show snow?

  • mwnavyvet

    i’m going with 8.5 inches in south olathe

  • stjoeattorney

    it is coming or all mets have egg in their face fir 200+ miles!!!!

  • sedsinkc

    I guessed 9 inches here in KC North yesterday. I’ll stay with that.

  • JPeculiar

    I’m going with 7″ North Cass county..8.5 Metro..

  • Skylar

    The entire state of Kansas was declared a state of emergency a few minutes ago by the governor.

  • nbell31b

    I don’t see a link, Gary. Did you forget to paste it in?

  • sedsinkc

    NWS KC put out its latest snowfall forecast a few minutes ago: 9.2 inches for Kansas City.

  • stjoeattorney

    no link.

    12-16 here

    kci 8-10 wheeler 6-8

  • realkc

    Just saw a snow forecast graphic on TWC showing KC receiving 12-18 inches. Not sure if it was a mistake or what. That is hard to believe!! lol

  • ChrisS

    400 feet for blue springs. No really, I am having to sleep at the shop tomorrow because I live far enough away I am not going to chance it, hope everyone that has to travel stays careful, not looking forward to spending the next 20 hours starting tomorrow morning in a plow truck but it is what I get paid to do (local city) so remember everyone we do all we can so please dont complain. Crews work hard during these and if you want a foot of snow be patient with the clean up. It isn’t easy.

  • “http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax”

  • sedsinkc

    NAM snow totals. “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022018&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=042″

  • mattmaisch

    We will see what Gary says here in a few minutes, but based upon the blog and his open to the newscast, I am extremely worried that he is going to suggest that there will be more sleet than advertised, and because of it, our totals will be much lower, especially along and just south of I-70.

  • mgsports

    More schools are going to be annoucing no School tomorrow in KS pretty soon.

  • Paul M. Galbrecht

    I’m going with 7 inches of snow in Southern Olathe (by Garmin)..there is also no link?

  • weather

    Blah Blah Blah. We will all know by this time tomorrow. Sit back and have a few drinks and CHILL.

  • weather

    I’m going with at least 1″ but much more then 2″…

  • weather

    The link is there you just can’t see it. Just click on the space.

  • Kcchamps

    ok here is my best guess >>>> 10-12″ for I70 northward with lesser amounts south of I70 maybe 5-7″

  • stjoeattorney

    all it takes is a tstorm and bang there is 3 inches quick

  • weather

    Come on be honest how many people tried clicking on the space…LOL

  • Grumpy

    3″ – 6″

  • Hey username “weather”….you sit back and get off the blog for a change….

    DOWNVOTE

  • tushchaser1

    After reading the forecast discussion issued out of P Hill, I am not concerned with the onset of freezing rain and the reduction of snow totals along and south of I70. As stated, with the slowing down of the storm system and the lack of temperature variance today has allowed sufficient cooling.

    Looking forward to the snow, hopeful it falls, and provides this winter with a little more excitement!

    • weather

      Agreed! It would help alot if that pesky east wind would quit blowing in the dry air.

      • tushchaser1

        True. The east wind and dry air continues to slow down the system, which is going to make the storm last longer throughout Thursday and Thursday night.

        Hopefully, the system will overtake the dry air and get the ball rolling. I am looking forward to a fine Canadian beverage and a roaring fire!

  • Grumpy

    My 3-6 prediction relates to the SE part of the area, Lee’s Summit.

  • f00dl3

    In some ways the dry air can enhance dendrite production and with the colder air increase snowfall ratios, as well as lead to more elevated instability – as long as the conveyor belt stays moist.

  • realkc

    TWC is showing an updated snow forecast graphic where KC receives 12-18 inches total. That is hard to believe!! lol

  • kettle corn

    I am guessing 4″. You can go to Coaches Kettle Corn on facebook and vote for how much snow we will get. And win free Gourmet Kettle Corn!

    • Grumpy

      Depends on where in LSMO. Predict 3″ on the SW side to 5″ NE

      • kettle corn

        Be sure and go to Coaches Kettle Corn on facebook, like us and post your guess. If your prediction is right you can win choose between cinnamon toast, brown sugar cinnamon or traditional. We are located on the North side of LS

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022022&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=018″

    Check it out. That’s pretty impressive snow rate.

  • tushchaser1

    Nice forecast. However, I believe the computer graphic used by GL may be overproducing the amount of sleet we will receive. Time will tell.

  • McCabe58

    Gary is thinking alot of sleet it seems… I’m not too sure about that since it was 5-6 degrees cooler today than forecasted.

  • f00dl3

    RAP really slows it down – onset at 9-10 AM

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    “http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kmci”

    I don’t see sleet at all around KCI and north based off this 540 and 800 Mbar temperature range. If there I sleet it appears it is going to be south of KCI

  • sedsinkc

    The sleet is the thing. One inch of liquid is about 2 or 2.5 inches of sleet, rather than 10 or 12 inches of snow. This link shows the precip types expected from the latest NAM data, with this link’s map showing the farthest north forecasted extent of the sleet expected. To me, it looks exactly like the equivalent map I posted a link to this morning, no northward shift in the sleet evident. But this is only 1 model. This forecast map is valid at noon tomorrow. Orange is sleet, blue is snow. So if it gets to be 2 pm tomorrow and you haven’t had sleet yet, you probably won’t in the KC area. “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022018&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=024″

  • HeatMiser

    There will be no sleet in KC. The Heat Miser has spoken.

  • SnowComando

    Topeka NWS doing a little forecast for us:

    MOSTLY EAST OF I-35…BUT RESULTING HEAVY SNOWBAND
    COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS I-70. GIVEN AMOUNT OF
    INSTABILITY…THUNDERSNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE. IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES OF
    3 INCHES PER HOUR WERE NOTED IN MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CENTERED
    AROUND 15-18 UTC THURSDAY.

    • mattmaisch

      Very interesting. That is what this storm will have the ability to do. Get caught under that area and you could get 6-9″ in 3 hours!!

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    Spreader crews out in force dropping sand. Methinks it will do no good with the amount of snow expected to fall.

  • I just reallllly want to see Thundersnow…haven’t seen it since the devastating blizzards in the mid 80′s that affected NW KS and left the Opendorffs stranded for 14 days in a car on a remote country road.

    I don’t want to see anyone stranded. I just want to show my kids at home and see if any of the kids I teach get to see it. I teach at Pleasant Ridge and live in LV KS.

  • f00dl3

    I’m still doing my run in it as long as it’s not lightning much!

  • kellyinkc

    The weather underground is saying only 2 inches or so. LOL

  • HeatMiser

    bring it on

  • Freeze Miser

    Yes, miser brother, bring it on!

  • HeatMiser

    Ah, it’s my miser brother. Hey brother, I can’t seem to get my Heat Miser self portrait photo onto this. How did you do it?

  • fire508

    NWS has updated the snow here in Ex. Springs. 6-10 tomorrow and 1-3 tomorrow night . 7-13 total and in their Hourly weather adds up to 9.9!

  • lsx347

    garys 9am snow map looks like a total bust!

  • Freeze Miser

    Hot head…make yourself a profile on WordPress.com (or org) and then add an avatar picture. It’s a pain but once you’ve done it’ll be funny on here.

  • Kole Christian

    “http://weather.aol.com/2013/02/20/massive-snowstorm-brewing-from-colorado-to-upper-midwest/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D272994″

    we made it to AOL

  • nofluer

    @ 18:15 hrs abt 10 miles N of Mound City – elev 1K’ – winds EAST at 0 to 5 +/-.

  • AFPILOTWXJUNKIE

    “http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022023&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=018″

    RAP shows over 2 in snow / hr in KC. Impressive.

    • stjoeobserver

      Give the RAP 3-4 more cycles and we’ll see some really good initial estimates on snow totals for tomorrow!

  • ShanePBrady

    So up here in Plattsburg, I’ve seen numbers as low as 3 to as high as 22 from various sources. Since freezing rain doesn’t seem to a threat, I’m more interested in how much actual moisture this will count as versus snow depth. What are we looking at water wise?

  • barkevious

    The buzzwords are all here, starting with “very unusual weather pattern” (interchangeable with “very difficult forecast” and “complicated storm”). Once the storm is about 12 hours out, everything shifts to one direction of the other, bringing the forecast back to reality.

    With interest/viewership at a maximum, my guess is that we’ll see the snowfall forecast dip into the 3″ range by 10pm.

    This has played out this way far too many times.

    • kcpurpledog

      Does that same logic exist for the other mets that are forecasting similar amounts or just for GL? It must be collusion on the meteorologist front? Geez

      • barkevious

        Yep. It’s all ratings and traffic driven. There’s no reason to think that they push the sensationalist stories in every other respect, but play it straight with the weather.

  • HeatMiser

    I’m just a little disappointed in Gary’s on air snowfall prediction for KC – 5-11 inches? That is a huge difference GL between 5 and ll inches. Are we covering ourselves a bit too obviously mabye?

    • mattmaisch

      Keep in mind the 435 loop is the biggest such loop in the United States. Lots of square footage to cover. I’d just about be willing to bet that someone within the metro gets 5 inches, while someone else gets 11″+ Would it still be a weak forecast if that happened?

    • StormyWX

      You shouldn’t be! Remember the map. The metro is slipt just about right in half. The northwestern part of the city could see 7-12″ while the southeastern part could see between 5 and 9″ of snow, hence is 5-11″ statement.

    • kcpurpledog

      No Heat Miser. You are just a dufus. If you have been paying any attention at all, and from the sounds of things, you haven’t, this is because of forecasted sleet mixing in in some locations. Remember its a forecast for the entire area that views him. Should he say 5 inches knowing some could get 11, or should he put 11 knowing some could get 5? Which one would you like to criticize?

  • KCI is delaying/cancelling flights tomorrow.

  • realkc

    Here is the latest snow total graphic from TWC. It shows 12-18 inches for the north side of the metro.

    “http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images/miscellaneous/667943_320x180.jpg”

  • realkc

    There is also a video segment talking about the snow forecast for Kansas City…

    “http://www.b.weather.com/video/big-snow-for-central-us-34347″

  • olathe-snowkid

    Anybody know if the big 3 in joco will have school tomorrow?

  • weather

    Please no one get on here in the morning at 8am and say where is the snow. Remember it may not start in KC metro until 9 or 10 maybe even 11.

  • kettle corn

    No one will have school tomorrow. But Roasted Vanilla Bean Kettle Corn will flow if you predict the correct amount to fall in Lees Summit. Go to Coaches Kettle Corn on facebook to make your prediction and win!

  • ChrisS

    Oak Grove cancelled school about 20 minutes ago

  • snowbird

    No matter what happens this is one interesting Storm to say the least, everyone post their totals as the day goes on