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Showers & Thunderstorms Move In

Good Morning Bloggers~

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As of 8 AM it is a nice and comfortable start with temperatures around 74° with mostly sunny skies.  Later this afternoon is when we are looking at rain chances increasing. This is a tricky forecast with the timing of rain chances because models still don’t have a good handle on exact timing. This is also making the temperature forecast going into the day tomorrow tricky as well.  Let’s look at it all right now. The NAM has it coming in this evening and out of here by the early morning hours.

NAM 21Z WED (WED AFTERNOON), NAM 00Z THU (WED EVENING)

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Topeka to Hiawatha to St. Joseph need to watch out of storms by 3-6 pm and then Kansas City Metro area around 6-8 pm then pushing into the eastern parts of the viewing area overnight.

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We may have a few showers around for the morning commute, but most of the heavy rain should be off to the east by then.  The clouds and rain tomorrow will be a big factor in temperatures, so our temperature forecast for tomorrow is a bit tricky.  If the NAM is right and all rain moves out in the morning and we stay for the most part dry Thursday temperatures could be up near 90 degrees, but if the GFS is right then it could be in the upper 70s!!!! THAT IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE! I am not a fan of this haha… If it rains all night it will not rain all day tomorrow, so I’m going with 86° for the high temperature tomorrow.  We will update later today when some of the new data gets in later today.

Have a great day!

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22 comments to Showers & Thunderstorms Move In

  • Hume-Dude

    NAM still looking like best energy will stay north, even North of KC possibly. I will take anything, ANYTHING that is wet! Haven’t seen mud on the farm for over a month, hoping the HRRR is right as it has been so many other times this year.

  • FARMERMIKE

    I agree with you. I would take mud over dust anytime.
    last nite the farmer down the road told me he was taking the crop insurance check for his beans then haying them. also heard that about 20 miles west of here they were cutting corn for silage because there was not enough good in the field for actual corn harvest. like you said its been a month since a good rain. on a differnt note that milo i planted is holding up good. hard to believe it and the beans were planted same time.
    BRING ON THE RAIN — A TOAD STRANGLER – FENCE WASHER OUTER!!!!!!!

  • Hume-Dude

    1.5″ will work for me, or 4″, whatever. Dang Mike, not sounding too good your way. Our corn is done down here, been done for a couple weeks, and the ears are pretty well filled out. Beans have nice pods, just no beans in them, only little tiny bean germs. IF we get a nice rain tonight they will probably be saved, but we will have to see about that. I think major difference this year between our areas is the heat. Like KC, probably only been 90F 10 times this year down here. You have been baking in 95F-100F for last couple weeks I imagine, with no rain, which is SO HARD on anything green trying to flower and produce. That’s a shame, always sad day to see your crop baled up for hay…

  • Screaming Yellow Zonker

    I am pulling for your beans hume dude!!!

  • Fat_Louie

    Anytime I see or hear the word “tricky”, the red flags go up. It’s an escape plan for a botched forecast

    • Hume-Dude

      I feel something may be amiss in this setup, like usual past couple of years. TWC 48 Hr. precip map has much heavier amounts, GUESS WHERE? Just east…same ol’ same ol’ LRC pattern. I do think we get something..PW (precipitable water) values are very high so any storms we do get have potential for very heavy rains. Whatever does happen looks to be out of here quickly so wouldn’t be surprised at all if tomorrow is virtually 100% dry for Chiefs game. Just say that aloud…..”CHIEFS GAME”…that’s music to my ears!

  • terrydsnowy

    I say be ready for thunderstorms here in KCK.

  • robyn corzine

    This fits perfectly with the LRC I tell ya. The forecast is for .25 to 3 inches of rain. It’s a can’t miss forecast I tell ya. BOOM.

    FARMERMIKE how can that be? Some are on here screaming how there is no drought and everything is lush and green.

    • Dobber

      Who is screaming miss corzine? I myself am grateful for the rain. Lezak has been forecasting this for 12 weeks.

  • Hume-Dude

    Finally small cells popping by Topeka, and around Emporia. Hopefully this is the HRRR model coming to fruition….

  • luvsno

    Here is what Gary said on 2020……
    Gary Lezak says: August 6, 2014 at 1:59 pm CDT
    It’s smelling a lot like some of our near misses. I think 3 to 5 inches could fall by morning but east of KC may be the target unless it starts early. I am so ready for a new pattern. I’m not giving up yet, just the usual concern.

    • Hume-Dude

      I don’t know why we let ourselves get so excited for these “BIG STORMS” anymore. You would think one of them would HAVE to produce eventually, yea, like next LRC pattern eventually more like it. Alas, it hasn’t even started yet so lets not get to worried about a miss just yet. If Gary’s post was at 1:59, it was before the cells started to pop out west, I was starting to think the exact same thing as Gary was. Give it another hour to see if we start to see a line form out west

  • Hume-Dude

    Cells really blowing up out west! Too bad they are not propagating further south. No southern development at this time….since NFL is coming back….I will just say….”COME’ON MAN!!!

  • trinlivco

    Checked rain totals at my farm S.E of Chillicothe 10 miles had maybe 0.20 of rain while Chillicothe had 1.70. Sure as the heck hope we get lots of rain tonight and tomorrow south of town at my farm. Getting very dry thier. No rain for 25 days. Hate this hit and miss pattern. We need a area wide big rain 2 to 3 inches. Bring it on. TR

  • chris

    Wow those storms are really intensifying quick near lawrence

  • chris

    Hume there are some nice cells exploding by fort scott..maybe the farm will get some much needed rain

  • OP-Merriam-Line

    Record rain for today “was” 1.77 in 1959. l8r