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1753, 1604, 42

Good Wednesday bloggers,

An almost five year streak may break today.  The numbers, in the title of this blog, represent weather streaks ongoing in Kansas City (officially). It has been almost 5 years since we reached 100°. This streak may end Thursday, but it will take a drop in the dew points to do so. The drier the air, the better chance of heating up. The 3″ snowstorm streak will have to wait awhile and the 1″ of rain in one day is going to have to wait at least a few days. KCI did not get a drop of rain out of the big Tuesday thunderstorms. They received 0.15″ from morning rain. Now, if the thunderstorm was farther north, then KCI would have seen 1″ of rain in 20 minutes.

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Now that we are transitioning from severe weather to heat, here are some statistics that you may not know.

This is a graph of the annual weather related deaths that occur in the USA, using a 30 year average. Flooding is ahead of tornadoes followed by wind and lightning. Hail does not kill people, just wallets. Hail can cause huge damage to roofs, cars and crops.

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Do you know what the number one weather killer is? It is heat which is close to the number of deaths caused by flooding and tornadoes combined. I believe when there is a flood or tornado, people are more vigilant. This is likely due to not only ample warning, but floods and tornadoes are much more rapid and violent. Heat is a slower evolving thing, even though in 5-10 minutes a closed car can reach 140°!

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Here are some simple heat tips. They sound simple, but so is “Turn around don’t drown” when it comes to flooding. If everyone followed the simple rules the numbers above would drop. You simply cannot leave your kids/pets in the car when it gets hot, even when the high is in the 80s and low 90s.

 

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Now, let;s get to the forecast. The anticyclone or “heat wave creating machine” is forming in the southern Rockies and will travel east through Saturday, affecting the middle of the USA as it does so.

Here is the Thursday upper level flow. The jet stream is running across the northern USA as the anticyclone grows over the southern Rockies and Plains.

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The anticyclone will travel to the northeast by Saturday as it gets pushed by a trough moving through the Rockies. So, as the anticyclone takes this track it will bring three really hot days to our area, likely our second heat wave of the season.

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THURSDAY MORNING: A few thunderstorms will be possible across northern and eastern Missouri, along the leading edge of the higher heat. Lows will be 75°-80° with downtown KC likely seeing lows 80°-85°. If a thunderstorm affected I-70 later tonight, it would not be a surprise.

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON: This is the day where we have the best chance to break the 100° streak as the upper level high will be very near and moving in. If there are more thunderstorms later tonight into early Thursday than we are forecasting it will leave cloud debris and a possible outflow boundary, taking care of the 100° threat. This would happen even if the thunderstorms were more numerous in northern Missouri and not in KC.

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FRIDAY: The anticyclone begins its trek east and highs around here will cool a few degrees as we go into south flow aloft around the western edge of the upper level high. The cold front in Nebraska arrives later Saturday night into Sunday increasing the chance of thunderstorms and possibly breaking the third weather streak.

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Have a great rest of the week and stay cool!

Jeff Penner

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1 comment to 1753, 1604, 42

  • Richard

    Gary

    The 2020 blog format needs an overhaul ! There are FOUR dated June 27th !
    Every time you are gone there are issues. And the page keeps jumping up and down again !
    Why is it so hard to have consistency with that blog. There are never any issues over here on this one. So why can’t this format be used for the 2020 blog ???