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100% Chance of Thunderstorms

Good Saturday bloggers,

A cold front and storm system are heading east out of the Rockies and these will arrive in our region this evening, interacting with warmth and humidity in place and the result will be rain and thunderstorms, some very heavy and possibly severe. So, lets go through this active day of weather.

There is a slight risk of severe weather with damaging winds the main threat.  The threat is a bit less than last weekend when we had damaging winds north of the river.  Now, that said, we have to keep a close eye on things.  There is an enhanced slight risk of severe weather in southeast Kansas and much of Oklahoma to north Texas where it will be warmer.

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NOON SATURDAY:It will be mostly dry, mostly cloudy and windy with temperatures around 70°. South winds will gust 30-40 mph.

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5 PM SATURDAY: Thunderstorms will be rapidly forming and increasing from northwest Missouri around Maryville, MO to Topeka and Wichita. KC will be windy and mild with a few showers and thunderstorms moving by.

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8 PM SATURDAY: The rain and thunderstorms will cover a large area along and west of I-35.  There will be very heavy downpours and possibly some damaging wind gusts.  The severe threat appears a bit lower than last Saturday night, but we must watch this closely.  The heavy rain and minor flooding threat is much higher.  Temperatures will range from the 70s southeast to 50s northwest as this average October cold front moves through the region.

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MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT: The large band of rain and thunderstorms will be shifting east as temperatures drop in to the 50s.

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8 AM SUNDAY: The band of rain will be off to the east in a much weakened state as temperatures drop to around 50°. The wind will be from the west and northwest at 5-15 mph.

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4 PM SUNDAY: It will be a very nice afternoon with highs in the 60s, a 5-15 mph wind from the west and northwest and abundant sunshine.

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RAINFALL FORECAST: When you look at these forecast totals for tonight keep in mind that the whole month of October in KC averages 3.16″ of rain. Rainfall around the region will range from around 1″ to 2.50″.  If you look closely there is a higher bulls eye in the KC area.

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RAINFALL FORECAST CLOSER IN TO KC: There will be likely be a 2.50″ to 3.15″ rainfall bulls eye.  This data has the heaviest from Lawrence to Leavenworth to Camden Point. This bulls eye may still shift east or west by 20-40 miles. Needless to say, we are in for a stormy Saturday night and watch for minor flooding. “TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN.” Six inches of flowing water can wash away a car or SUV.

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Keep and eye to the sky today and tonight.  The weather looks great Sunday into much of next week with a possible strong cold front arriving at the end of the week.

Have a great weekend,

Jeff

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