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100% Chance Of Rain

Good morning bloggers,

Tropical Storm Gordon will weaken to a depression today, and then go through a rather interesting transition by Saturday as the overall LRC flow (500 mb wave train aloft that is cycling according to the LRC) picks up the storm and combines with an upper level trough to create a new surface low by Saturday over Missouri.  This is a rather complex development and how it forms will decide which locations get the most rainfall later this week. Ahead of this development is a band of tropical moisture and a weak cold front moving slowly across the plains states today. Take a look at the radar images from around 7:40 AM this morning:

Screen Shot 2018-09-05 at 7.36.30 AM

Screen Shot 2018-09-05 at 7.33.11 AM

Kansas City Weather Timeline:

  • Today: Rain likely north and west of a Pleasanton, KS to Lone Jack, MO to Chillicothe, MO line. South and east of this white line shown above will likely get missed by most of todays rain, and this is the target of the main storm developing by Saturday, however.  Temperatures in the 70s.
  • Tonight: Scattered showers with a chance of thunderstorms.  Low:  67°
  • Thursday:  Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
  • Friday-Saturday:  Much cooler with highs in the 60s with rain likely, heaviest south and east of I-35

Here is the rainfall forecast from the latest GFS model run:

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The prediction of Gordon to form and track where it did was precisely done by Weather2020 8 months ago by applying the LRC technology.  One point I will make today. Our analytics had an 84% chance of a storm to form and track there by June 1.  The National Hurricane Center had 10% chance five days before. Think about that for a few minutes.  Now, what comes next? There is a 64% chance Florida will get hit by a hurricane later this month. Right now, Florence is likely not the one.  We will monitor closely, as we have had a prediction for one to threaten the southeast coast, including Florida within around two and a half weeks.

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We will see how the models trend today on the rain chances for rest of the week. Right now, the bottom of my rain gauge is bone dry. Will it overflow the 1″ tube, or is my pond going to continue to have a beach around it. Have a great day and thank you for reading the Action Weather Blog featuring Weather2020 and the LRC.  Go to the Weather2020.com blog to join in the conversation.

Gary

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